AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Fall Forecast: Warmth to fuel wildfires and hurricanes
AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Aug. 6, 2025 - AccuWeather long-range experts say the transition to autumn next month will bring cooler air and sweater weather for millions of Americans, while others will be dealing with lingering summer heat, tropical storms, hurricanes, wildfires, or a smoky haze obscuring the sky.
> Average autumn temperatures are forecast to be 2-3 degrees above the historical average across parts of 25 states in the eastern and northwestern U.S.
> A faster transition to fall with cooler air is expected across parts of eight states in the north-central U.S.
> Risk of wildfires sparking and spreading in the West will ramp up in September, threat of severe weather is expected to return to the central Gulf Coast and Ohio Valley in October
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“Areas in the middle of the country, including Kansas to Wisconsin, will experience very pleasant and calm stretches of fall weather that will be perfect for fairs, festivals, and outdoor events,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. “Other areas across the eastern and western U.S. will face some stubborn summerlike heat and humidity sticking around this autumn.”
Meteorological fall starts on Monday, Sept. 1, while astronomical autumn starts on the equinox at 2:19 p.m. EDT on Monday, Sept. 22.
Summer warmth lingers in the East and West, Cold blasts in the Plains
Warm and humid air will hold firm across the eastern United States through the start of autumn, delaying the true arrival of fall-like weather conditions.
AccuWeather long-range experts say the warmest weather, compared to the historical average, will be focused on areas from California to Texas and northward into Oregon and Idaho.
“A slower transition to fall is expected along much of the East Coast from the Carolinas to parts of the Northeast and even New England. There will be some heat and humidity hanging around as kids start heading back to school,” Pastelok said. “There is a clear trend of hot and sticky summer weather sticking around longer into the back-to-school season across much of the East Coast and many other parts of the country.”
Chilly transitions will have people reaching for hoodies and heavier coats in late October and into November as intrusions of cold air become more frequent. Warm air will be persistent across the Southeast and Southwest well into the second half of fall.
The cold air will first arrive and be most pronounced in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan.
“We expect some pretty strong cold fronts to come through parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains that could bring a wintry blast with flurries a few weeks earlier than what you’d typically see,” Pastelok said.
Renewed risk of flash flooding and severe weather
Tropical storms and hurricanes interacting with slow-moving fronts may trigger heavy rainfall and flash flooding at times from the central Gulf Coast into the Appalachians and parts of the Midwest. This includes some areas devastated by deadly flooding earlier this year.
Flash flooding remains a concern early in the season across the Southwest due to the annual monsoon before eventually drying out. The onset of the wet season in the Pacific Northwest could cause localized flooding, where rain can quickly run off the parched soils across the region.
The collision of lingering summer warmth and encroaching cold air will trigger severe weather from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. These regions are expected to see a moderate risk for damaging storms and tornadoes, especially in October and November.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists urge families and businesses to ensure emergency supplies are restocked and safe rooms or storm shelters are ready for use, ahead of the ‘second severe weather season’ in the U.S.
“There have been a lot of destructive tornadoes across the nation this year,” Pastelok said. “Plenty of warm and moist air is forecast to continue surging from the Gulf into the center of the country this autumn. When it clashes with cooler air from Canada plunging in from the north, we will likely see rounds of severe storms and possibly more tornadoes in the center of the country, especially in October. The risk of severe weather is predicted to shift east into the Tennessee Valley and the interior Southeast during the month of November.”
More than 1,300 preliminary tornado reports have been filed across the country so far this year.
Following rounds of severe outbreaks across the U.S. earlier this year, AccuWeather long-range experts have increased the AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Tornado Forecast to 1,525-1,700 tornadoes.
Tropical Threats along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts
Abnormally warm waters and conditions more conducive for tropical development will fuel the potential for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and potentially rapidly intensify near coastal cities from late summer throughout autumn.
"Development can be quick, as they tend to form near land over the Southwest Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean, giving short time to prepare, rather than farther out over the Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
AccuWeather is predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season, with 13-18 named storms, including seven-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes and three to six direct impacts to the U.S.
Tropical Storm Chantal was the first named storm to make landfall in the U.S. this season on July 6. AccuWeather experts say Chantal caused an estimated total damage and economic loss of $4 billion to $6 billion in total damage and economic loss, including flash flood damage and tourism losses over the Independence Day holiday weekend.
Western wildfire risk to peak early
The wildfire threat will be elevated across the West through the first half of autumn, particularly in California, the Rockies and Northwest. Wind events may spark large fires in Central and Southern California as early as September, while lightning from moisture-starved thunderstorms could ignite fires farther north.
“People in fire-prone areas need to have their go bags ready. Please make sure the defensible space around your home is cleared and take evacuation orders seriously,” Pastelok said.
AccuWeather long-range experts forecast a very high risk of fires sparking and spreading this fall across parts of Central and Northern California, central and eastern Oregon, as well as western and central Idaho.
The Great Lakes region may also face fire concerns during dry, windy periods. If dry stretches persist, parts of the Northeast and Carolinas could see a heightened fire risk this fall.
“Dry fuels from Hurricane Helene in 2024 continue to be a high risk in western North Carolina, northwestern South Carolina and northern Georgia," Pastelok explained.
Smoke from wildfires burning across Canada and the western U.S. will continue to bring rounds of smoke into the sky over parts of the Midwest and Northeast this fall.
“Millions of people from Minneapolis to Chicago will likely see more rounds of wildfire smoke and a hazy sky into the middle of the fall season. The wind and weather patterns will continue to carry wildfire smoke high in the atmosphere from the western U.S. and Canada over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, into the Northeast,” Pastelok explained. “There will be more vibrant sunsets that make for beautiful photos, but we also expect additional rounds of reduced air quality at times that can cause serious public health risks, especially for young people, older adults, outdoor workers, athletes, and other people with respiratory conditions.”
Harvest forecast for farmers
After a challenging planting and growing season for farmers and gardeners across parts of the central U.S., Pastelok says frequent poor harvest weather conditions are likely across a large swath of the country stretching from northeast Texas through the Tennessee and Ohio valleys into the Great Lakes region.
“Farmers in this area need to pay close attention to the forecast during the harvest period. Some fields have had so much rain in recent weeks that heavy equipment could get stuck in the mud,” Pastelok said. “Gusty storms or severe weather may damage crops before farmers have an opportunity to harvest in some areas.”
First wintry blast of the season
Snow may arrive early in the Rockies, downwind of the Great Lakes, and the coldest spots in the Plains, which are typical spots for early-season wintry weather. Snow lovers across the rest of the country may have to wait a bit longer than usual to see some snowflakes.
“Old man winter could arrive early this year in places like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Don’t be surprised if you have to dig your winter coat, gloves and hat out a bit earlier than you typically do,” Pastelok said. “The first blasts of snow and cold may arrive a bit behind schedule this fall in the higher elevations of Northern California, thanks to the big dome of high pressure over the Southwest.”
AccuWeather long-range experts say it will be a slow start to the lake-effect snow season in the eastern Great Lakes, but some areas could receive measurable snow in November.
The AccuWeather® 2025 U.S. Fall Foliage Forecast will be released in early September.
Additional AccuWeather® Resources:
Fall forecast 2025: Warmth to fuel fires, hurricanes before cold air chills US
Fall fury: The 2nd severe weather, tornado season in the U.S.
Is flash flooding getting worse? Summer’s soaking start may hold the answer
‘Hurricane drought' in the Northeast; is the region prepared?
Flooding and tornado impacts could reach far inland again this Atlantic hurricane season
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