Rare ‘seiche’ to cause hurricane-like storm surge on Lake Erie
Witnessing a seiche is like looking at a hurricane's storm surge and waves - but it can happen during the winter, tossing heavy snow or lake ice into the mix.
A forecast shows the water level on Lake Erie will differ by 11.5 feet (355 cm) tonight from the western to eastern shore. (NOAA)
People living on the east shore of Lake Erie may see the lake's water level rise into their yards and onto roads Wednesday night. At the same time, residents on the west shore will watch the lake recede far away from them. This phenomenon is what meteorologists call a "seiche."
Wednesday night, Lake Erie's water level at Buffalo is forecast to rise 5-6 feet higher than before the storm, while at Toledo, Ohio, on the lake's west side, levels will drop by 5-6 feet from Tuesday night's levels. The highest and lowest points will occur around 7 p.m. EST.
A graph of the forecast rise (Buffalo) and fall (Toledo) of water during tonight's seiche. (NOAA)
What is a seiche?
A seiche occurs when strong, persistent winds push water toward one side of a lake or other enclosed body of water. The stronger and longer the winds blow, the more pronounced the rise and fall become. When the winds eventually subside, the water slicks back and forth, similar to water moving in a bathtub.
On Lake Erie, the largest seiches occur when high winds blow from southwest to northeast, which matches the orientation of the lake. The water is pushed northeastward by high winds then sloshes back in the other direction and continues to oscillate at lower levels. This can occur on any small body of water.
A seiche occurs when wind forces water across a lake, creating high water on one end and low water on the other. (NOAA)
Witnessing a seiche is like looking at the storm surge and waves from a hurricane. When seiches occur during the winter, they add heavy snow and ice into the mix on top of the flood threat. In the video below, Reed Timmer documented the rise of water and debris from a seiche at Buffalo, New York, on Dec. 23, 2022, along with high waves, winds and heavy snow.
Because of the increased water levels, already destructive waves can reach new heights. If the lake has partial ice coverage, damage can also occur as waves throw the ice toward shore.
While the damage from a seiche can be similar to a storm surge from a hurricane, a storm surge would typically be directed at one particular area on the coast, whereas a seiche can damage both shores.
The largest known seiche on Lake Erie was a 22-foot event that killed 77 people and dammed Niagara Falls with ice, temporarily stopping the waterfall from flowing. More recently, a 16-foot seiche flooded homes in Buffalo in 2008.
Seiche waves strike a shoreline structure in Buffalo, New York, in April 2018. (NYSDEC)
