Zeta makes landfall on Yucatan Peninsula, sets its sights on US next
By
Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Oct 25, 2020 4:43 PM EDT
|
Updated Oct 27, 2020 2:07 PM EDT
Zeta made landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale around 11 p.m. CDT, Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center. At the time of landfall, Zeta was packing a punch with sustained winds of 80 mph near its center.
As Zeta continued to interact with land early Tuesday morning, the storm lost some of its wind intensity. As of 4 a.m. CDT, Zeta was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless of status, Zeta will continue to bring heavy rain and damaging winds to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula through the day Tuesday.
Then, Zeta will chart a course for the U.S., taking a familiar route as it streaks across the Gulf of Mexico toward the coast. AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Zeta a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northern Gulf Coast "from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans," the NHC said. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Okaloosa-Walton County Line in
Florida.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Punta Allen, Mexico, to Progreso, Mexico, as well as for Cozumel, Mexico.
With the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean on Sunday morning, the 2020 Atlantic season is now just one tropical storm away from tying the record set back in 2005.
The storm began developing in earnest on Saturday when Tropical Depression 28 formed 255 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba on Saturday evening, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. By early Sunday morning, Tropical Depression 28 had further intensified, officially becoming Tropical Storm Zeta, the 27th named storm of the year in the Atlantic.
By mid-morning on Monday, Zeta was on the threshold of becoming a hurricane, a status reached sustained winds hit 74 mph or greater. And tropical-storm-force winds extended about 115 miles outward from the center of the storm. Zeta first strengthened into a hurricane on Monday afternoon as it swirled over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
"For those counting, 2005 still holds the record for the most number of named storms in a season (28). NHC identified an "unnamed" subtropical storm in its post-season analysis that year, which is included in the total," the National Hurricane Center said on Twitter. "With #Zeta, the number for 2020 currently stands at 27.
The former unnamed storm from the 2005 season is simply referred to now as the "Azores sub-tropical storm."
This image shows Hurricane Zeta churning just before making landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Oct. 26, 2020. (RAMMB/CIRA)
Only one other storm in history has been named Zeta, with the last Tropical Storm Zeta forming on Dec. 28, 2005. That Zeta was also the second tropical system on record to exist during two different years, as it continued to churn in the Atlantic until Jan. 6, 2006. Forecasters have never before utilized Eta, or subsequent Greek letters, to name tropical systems in the Atlantic.
Zeta's intensity is forecast to fluctuate through midweek.
"Moisture from Zeta will bring rounds of heavy rainfall all the way from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to areas as far east as South Florida through Tuesday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll.
Some parts of western Cuba and South Florida, as well as the Florida Keys will see rainfall totals fo 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm). This can lead to some isolated mudslides in the mountainous terrain of Cuba, while coastal areas could see a few waterspouts associated with the heaviest downpours and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rain will fall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, near where Zeta made landfall and crosses the peninsula through Tuesday. Here, 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain is expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches (355 mm). Widespread flooding of street and poor-drainage areas should be expected. Rough surf and some storm surge flooding should also be expected along the southern and eastern coast of the peninsula.
Strong and damaging winds will also slam the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as Zeta impacts the area through Tuesday. Locally damaging wind gusts could also reach far western Cuba. The strongest winds will be along and near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, where wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph (95-130 kph) are anticipated, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph (160 kph).
Widespread damage to trees and power lines should be expected in this area, with some damage to poorly constructed buildings as well. Within the larger swath of 40-60 mph (65-95 kph) wind gusts, damage will be more isolated, but there can still be some downed trees and power lines and roof damage.
Given the impacts from rain, wind and storm surge to the Yucatan Peninsula, Zeta is rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes. This scale, developed by AccuWeather, provides a more comprehensive outlook for impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes to land than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which is based solely on wind speed.
After it lashes the western Caribbean coast, Zeta will emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico and set its sights on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Some gain in strength is anticipated just north of the Yucatan Peninsula for a time on Tuesday, where it may strengthen as a Category 1 hurricane and may get close to Category 2 force for a time. A Category 2 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph.
However, Zeta is expected to meet more hostile conditions as it moves farther north in the Gulf. Water temperatures are lower and disruptive winds aloft, known as wind shear, are expected to increase over the northern Gulf.
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"A powerful storm system over Texas early this week should steer this system north toward the central Gulf Coast. This will also increase wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico, which may prevent further strengthening of the system, or even cause it to begin weakening," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
Even though Zeta is forecast to lose enough wind intensity to strike the U.S coast as a low-end Category 1 hurricane, forecasters warn that residents along the central and eastern Gulf Coast should not let their guard down.
On Monday, AccuWeather foreasters increased the rating for Zeta on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes to 1 from less than 1 for the potential impacts Zeta will bring to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Heavy rainfall and storm surge flooding will still be a threat along much of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Near where Zeta makes landfall strong wind gusts will threaten to bring down trees and power lines. Isolated tornadoes will also be a threat in the Southeast during the second half of the week.
Zeta is heading for a portion of the Gulf Coast that has already had to deal with four different named tropical systems this year in Laura, Marco, Sally and Delta. Marco, Sally and Delta all made landfall along the Louisiana coast, while Sally struck just east along the Alabama coast. Marco was the only storm of the 4 that did not make landfall as a hurricane.
Zeta is the earliest forming 27th storm on record for the Atlantic basin; the prior record for the earliest Atlantic 27th named storm formation was Epsilon on Nov. 29, 2005, according to Colorado State University Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
Landfall locations of Hurricane Delta vs. Hurricane Laura. Both brought extensive damage to portions of the Louisiana coast.
This would also be the 11th tropical system to make landfall in the U.S. in 2020. Hurricane Delta was number 10, which broke the record of 9 from 1916.
Sometimes, when tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall, tornadoes and waterspouts can occur and that will be a threat when Zeta comes ashore on the Gulf Coast.
"There is the potential for Zeta to unleash several tornadoes as it make landfall and begins to move inland," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
While forecasters warn residents of the central and eastern Gulf to closely monitor the progress of Zeta, the reach of Zeta's impacts will reach far inland across the U.S., and will begin to arrive even before the center of Zeta does.
"Heavy rain is by far going to be the most widespread impact from Zeta in the United States," warned AccuWeather Meteorologist Niki LoBiondo.
"As Zeta approaches the Gulf Coast and then moves inland, it will interact with the non-tropical storm system moving east out of Texas and a front situated along the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Zeta will also provide copious amounts of tropical moisture. These factors will then work together to wring out that moisture over much of the eastern U.S., with a large swath of potentially flooding rainfall late in the week," LoBiondo said.
For some, however, the potentially for heavy rain has a silver lining. Much of the Northeast remains in drought, with severe drought over parts of southern New England.
"The potential exists for some of the areas in drought in the Northeast to get over 2 inches of rain," LoBiondo said.
Heavy rain will spread into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Wednesday, before Zeta even makes landfall. The heaviest rainfall totals will be focused near where Zeta tracks through the Southeast, as well as near the front that will be situated from the Midwest to the Northeast. Moisture being forced up the Appalachian Mountains will also lead to heavy rainfall in that region.
Flash flooding will be a threat across much of the area where the heaviest rain totals are expected, especially in places with steeper terrain like the Appalachians. Ponding on roads and in poor-drainage area will likely be widespread, especially in communities where falling leaves clog storm drains.
Due to the widespread nature of heavy rain, some river flooding may also develop by the end of the week.
"From the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and southern New England southward, pretty much everyone is going to get a good soaking at some point during the second half of the week," LoBiondo said.
"While still too far in the future to know for sure, there's even a chance this storm could end as snow in the Northeast by Friday."
AccuWeather users can track Zeta from home using our local hurricane tracker pages that provide detailed information about a specific location. Click on the city name to track how Zeta will impact each place as it churns northward: Cancun, Mexico; Tulum, Mexico; New Orleans; Mobile, Alabama; Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Gulport, Mississippi; Jackson, Mississippi; Pensacola, Florida.
Correction: This story previously said that the 2020 Atlantic season tied the record number of named storms from 2005. The formation of Zeta makes 27 named storms, one shy of the record of 28 from 2005.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Zeta makes landfall on Yucatan Peninsula, sets its sights on US next
By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Oct 25, 2020 4:43 PM EDT | Updated Oct 27, 2020 2:07 PM EDT
Zeta made landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale around 11 p.m. CDT, Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center. At the time of landfall, Zeta was packing a punch with sustained winds of 80 mph near its center.
As Zeta continued to interact with land early Tuesday morning, the storm lost some of its wind intensity. As of 4 a.m. CDT, Zeta was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless of status, Zeta will continue to bring heavy rain and damaging winds to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula through the day Tuesday.
Then, Zeta will chart a course for the U.S., taking a familiar route as it streaks across the Gulf of Mexico toward the coast. AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Zeta a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northern Gulf Coast "from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans," the NHC said. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Okaloosa-Walton County Line in
Florida.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Punta Allen, Mexico, to Progreso, Mexico, as well as for Cozumel, Mexico.
With the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean on Sunday morning, the 2020 Atlantic season is now just one tropical storm away from tying the record set back in 2005.
The storm began developing in earnest on Saturday when Tropical Depression 28 formed 255 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba on Saturday evening, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. By early Sunday morning, Tropical Depression 28 had further intensified, officially becoming Tropical Storm Zeta, the 27th named storm of the year in the Atlantic.
By mid-morning on Monday, Zeta was on the threshold of becoming a hurricane, a status reached sustained winds hit 74 mph or greater. And tropical-storm-force winds extended about 115 miles outward from the center of the storm. Zeta first strengthened into a hurricane on Monday afternoon as it swirled over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
"For those counting, 2005 still holds the record for the most number of named storms in a season (28). NHC identified an "unnamed" subtropical storm in its post-season analysis that year, which is included in the total," the National Hurricane Center said on Twitter. "With #Zeta, the number for 2020 currently stands at 27.
The former unnamed storm from the 2005 season is simply referred to now as the "Azores sub-tropical storm."
This image shows Hurricane Zeta churning just before making landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Oct. 26, 2020. (RAMMB/CIRA)
Only one other storm in history has been named Zeta, with the last Tropical Storm Zeta forming on Dec. 28, 2005. That Zeta was also the second tropical system on record to exist during two different years, as it continued to churn in the Atlantic until Jan. 6, 2006. Forecasters have never before utilized Eta, or subsequent Greek letters, to name tropical systems in the Atlantic.
Zeta's intensity is forecast to fluctuate through midweek.
"Moisture from Zeta will bring rounds of heavy rainfall all the way from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to areas as far east as South Florida through Tuesday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll.
Some parts of western Cuba and South Florida, as well as the Florida Keys will see rainfall totals fo 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm). This can lead to some isolated mudslides in the mountainous terrain of Cuba, while coastal areas could see a few waterspouts associated with the heaviest downpours and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rain will fall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, near where Zeta made landfall and crosses the peninsula through Tuesday. Here, 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain is expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches (355 mm). Widespread flooding of street and poor-drainage areas should be expected. Rough surf and some storm surge flooding should also be expected along the southern and eastern coast of the peninsula.
Strong and damaging winds will also slam the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as Zeta impacts the area through Tuesday. Locally damaging wind gusts could also reach far western Cuba. The strongest winds will be along and near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, where wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph (95-130 kph) are anticipated, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph (160 kph).
Widespread damage to trees and power lines should be expected in this area, with some damage to poorly constructed buildings as well. Within the larger swath of 40-60 mph (65-95 kph) wind gusts, damage will be more isolated, but there can still be some downed trees and power lines and roof damage.
Given the impacts from rain, wind and storm surge to the Yucatan Peninsula, Zeta is rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes. This scale, developed by AccuWeather, provides a more comprehensive outlook for impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes to land than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which is based solely on wind speed.
After it lashes the western Caribbean coast, Zeta will emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico and set its sights on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Some gain in strength is anticipated just north of the Yucatan Peninsula for a time on Tuesday, where it may strengthen as a Category 1 hurricane and may get close to Category 2 force for a time. A Category 2 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph.
However, Zeta is expected to meet more hostile conditions as it moves farther north in the Gulf. Water temperatures are lower and disruptive winds aloft, known as wind shear, are expected to increase over the northern Gulf.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"A powerful storm system over Texas early this week should steer this system north toward the central Gulf Coast. This will also increase wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico, which may prevent further strengthening of the system, or even cause it to begin weakening," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
Related:
Even though Zeta is forecast to lose enough wind intensity to strike the U.S coast as a low-end Category 1 hurricane, forecasters warn that residents along the central and eastern Gulf Coast should not let their guard down.
On Monday, AccuWeather foreasters increased the rating for Zeta on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes to 1 from less than 1 for the potential impacts Zeta will bring to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Heavy rainfall and storm surge flooding will still be a threat along much of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Near where Zeta makes landfall strong wind gusts will threaten to bring down trees and power lines. Isolated tornadoes will also be a threat in the Southeast during the second half of the week.
Zeta is heading for a portion of the Gulf Coast that has already had to deal with four different named tropical systems this year in Laura, Marco, Sally and Delta. Marco, Sally and Delta all made landfall along the Louisiana coast, while Sally struck just east along the Alabama coast. Marco was the only storm of the 4 that did not make landfall as a hurricane.
Zeta is the earliest forming 27th storm on record for the Atlantic basin; the prior record for the earliest Atlantic 27th named storm formation was Epsilon on Nov. 29, 2005, according to Colorado State University Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
Landfall locations of Hurricane Delta vs. Hurricane Laura. Both brought extensive damage to portions of the Louisiana coast.
This would also be the 11th tropical system to make landfall in the U.S. in 2020. Hurricane Delta was number 10, which broke the record of 9 from 1916.
Sometimes, when tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall, tornadoes and waterspouts can occur and that will be a threat when Zeta comes ashore on the Gulf Coast.
"There is the potential for Zeta to unleash several tornadoes as it make landfall and begins to move inland," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
While forecasters warn residents of the central and eastern Gulf to closely monitor the progress of Zeta, the reach of Zeta's impacts will reach far inland across the U.S., and will begin to arrive even before the center of Zeta does.
"Heavy rain is by far going to be the most widespread impact from Zeta in the United States," warned AccuWeather Meteorologist Niki LoBiondo.
"As Zeta approaches the Gulf Coast and then moves inland, it will interact with the non-tropical storm system moving east out of Texas and a front situated along the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Zeta will also provide copious amounts of tropical moisture. These factors will then work together to wring out that moisture over much of the eastern U.S., with a large swath of potentially flooding rainfall late in the week," LoBiondo said.
For some, however, the potentially for heavy rain has a silver lining. Much of the Northeast remains in drought, with severe drought over parts of southern New England.
"The potential exists for some of the areas in drought in the Northeast to get over 2 inches of rain," LoBiondo said.
Heavy rain will spread into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Wednesday, before Zeta even makes landfall. The heaviest rainfall totals will be focused near where Zeta tracks through the Southeast, as well as near the front that will be situated from the Midwest to the Northeast. Moisture being forced up the Appalachian Mountains will also lead to heavy rainfall in that region.
Flash flooding will be a threat across much of the area where the heaviest rain totals are expected, especially in places with steeper terrain like the Appalachians. Ponding on roads and in poor-drainage area will likely be widespread, especially in communities where falling leaves clog storm drains.
Related:
Due to the widespread nature of heavy rain, some river flooding may also develop by the end of the week.
"From the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and southern New England southward, pretty much everyone is going to get a good soaking at some point during the second half of the week," LoBiondo said.
"While still too far in the future to know for sure, there's even a chance this storm could end as snow in the Northeast by Friday."
AccuWeather users can track Zeta from home using our local hurricane tracker pages that provide detailed information about a specific location. Click on the city name to track how Zeta will impact each place as it churns northward: Cancun, Mexico; Tulum, Mexico; New Orleans; Mobile, Alabama; Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Gulport, Mississippi; Jackson, Mississippi; Pensacola, Florida.
Correction: This story previously said that the 2020 Atlantic season tied the record number of named storms from 2005. The formation of Zeta makes 27 named storms, one shy of the record of 28 from 2005.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo