Tropical wind and rainstorm begins its onslaught on U.S. mid-Atlantic coast this weekend
A powerful tropical wind and rainstorm affect the mid-Atlantic coast with major coastal flooding, power outages and significant travel delays. Storm surge could be some of the worst since Sandy in some areas.
A day before the expected impacts of a powerful coastal storm, onshore winds were already causing flooding from Florida to the Carolinas.
A tropical wind and rainstorm along the Atlantic coast will strengthen while moving northward and deliver damaging winds, major coastal flooding and heavy rainfall on par with a hurricane or powerful nor'easter from Sunday to Tuesday, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The tail end of king tides and the ramp-up of the storm have already been producing flooding along parts of the southern Atlantic Coast from Friday to Saturday. Conditions will worsen farther north as the storm strengthens and begins to move.
"It is possible this storm may evolve into a sub-tropical or hybrid storm that is part tropical and part non-tropical in nature. If it becomes a subtropical storm, it would be named Lorenzo, as that is the next storm name on the list for the 2025 Atlantic season," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Acting New Jersey Gov. Tahesha Way declared a State of Emergency to be in effect from Saturday evening to Monday to prepare for and react to the impending storm.
"This will be a damaging and disruptive storm along the Atlantic coast regardless of any official designation or not by the National Hurricane Center," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for this storm is one," DaSilva said. This scale accounts for all impacts of the storm and ranges from less than one to five.
The coast from North Carolina to near New York City will experience significant impacts from the storm, with some damage, power outages and travel disruptions related to flooding and strong winds. A narrow zone within this stretch of coast has the potential to experience major damage.
"High winds may impact flights along the coast and lead to airline delays and flight cancellations," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said. This includes airports around New York City, Boston and Philadelphia.
This image shows an evolving tropical wind and rainstorm along the United States Atlantic Coast on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. Thunderstorms from Tropical Storm Jerry can be seen in the lower left of the image. (AccuWeather Enhance RealVue™ Satellite)
Outdoor plans during the second half of the weekend and into the start of the new week could be disrupted or canceled across parts of the mid-Atlantic and into southern New England due to expanding rains and increasing winds.
As the storm strengthens while moving to the north, near the coast, east to northeast winds will increase to the point where gusts frequenting 40-60 mph are in store with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 80 mph. A Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale has winds of 74 mph or greater.
Winds this strong will lead to power outages, fallen trees and property damage. Loose items may become projectiles.
The wind direction and speed will push a significant amount of water from the Atlantic Ocean toward the coast and into the back bays and estuaries.
A broad zone where a storm surge of 1-3 feet is anticipated will extend from the Carolinas to southeastern New England. However, there will be pockets with a storm surge of 4-5 feet in some beach communities and over the back bays.
In the worst hit areas, it is possible that this storm's storm surge could be some of the most impactful since Sandy, especially in locations in the mid-Atlantic that were spared in the 2012 storm.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ surge is 6 feet for this event. The storm surge is water levels above the routine forecast tides in the absence of a storm. Waves along the beachfront and inlets on top of the surge will result in even higher water levels.
Water levels this high will make some roads impassable, inundate the first floor of some neighborhoods, and damage vehicles parked in flooded areas. Access to some communities may be blocked by high water, which will be worse at times of high tide.
Low tide levels during the height of the storm may be above normal high tide levels in many cases.
Seas will reach 25 feet well offshore and pose danger for small craft and could damage larger vessels. Twenty-five feet is approximately the height of a three-story building.
Dangerous surf conditions will exist from the Carolinas to southeastern New England, with frequent and strong rip currents and large, pounding breakers. The combination of high water levels and heavy surf will lead to moderate to major beach erosion.
The combination of high winds and rough seas may temporarily stop some ferry operations and close high bridges for safety concerns.
This storm will bring heavy rainfall along the coast, complicating the flooding situation, even in areas that are abnormally dry or experiencing significant drought.
From 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall from coastal South Carolina to southern New England. Within this zone, the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 10 inches and most likely to occur from the North Carolina coast to the New Jersey coast.
"The storm is forecast to stall along the coast and may drift inland for a time or loop around before heading out to sea on Tuesday," DaSilva said. "During this maneuver, not only will winds, waves and coastal flooding blast away at the coast for a couple of days, but downpours may overwhelm some storm drains and lead to urban flooding."
Minor to moderate problems associated with wind, storm surge and coastal erosion are anticipated along the southern coast of New England, with the most significant impacts in southwestern Connecticut and in Cape Cod and the islands of Massachusetts.
In the wake of the storm, cool air will will sweep in over the eastern third of the nation from the Great Lakes to Florida.
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