Texas to Florida faces soaking as tropical rain crosses Gulf of Mexico
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that even though the risk of tropical development in the Gulf has passed for now, heavy rain is still in the cards.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the potential for tropical development in the Gulf, but whether a system develops or not, rain will expand along the Gulf Coast.
A double-whammy of tropical moisture is expected to bring drenching rainfall to the Gulf Coast this week, following a rather quiet spell in that part of the Atlantic basin.
Unlike in previous years, the Gulf of Mexico has not been the hot spot of tropical activity for much of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Of the season's 17 named tropical storms, only three have passed through the waters of the Gulf.
The first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arlene, navigated the eastern part of the Gulf in early June, followed by Tropical Storm Harold in mid-August, which made landfall in southern Texas. Most recently, Hurricane Idalia strengthened in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in late August, making landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast as a major Category 3 hurricane.
Now, AccuWeather forecasters warn that regardless of development potential, heavy rain is in store for parts of the Gulf coast.
AccuWeather hurricane experts have been monitoring this area for over a week, and even though the feature has run out of time to develop into an organized tropical entity, intense rainfall is expected at times for many near the coast of the South and especially the Southeast.
"Whether or not an organized tropical system develops, many of the impacts will remain the same," DaSilva explained.
As the storm pulls northeastward into midweek, it will bring waves of tropical moisture stemming from the Gulf of Mexico and the East Pacific, including from Lidia.
The double source of tropical moisture will help fuel an area of heavy rainfall and bring about flooding concerns through Thursday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected all along the Gulf coast from Texas to the southern tip of Florida. The storm's track will largely determine the location of the heaviest rain but will most likely target the Gulf coast's central and eastern parts into Thursday.
Even though the storm is moving rather quickly, it can bring any location rounds of heavier downpours for at least 12 hours.
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected to be common from the central Louisiana coast to southern South Carolina and central Florida, with more isolated rain totals of 3 or 4 inches. Should the area of low pressure track closer to the coast, it may bring even higher rain amounts farther to the north. While there will be a sharp northern edge to the rain, some showers will occur just to the north of the 1-inch zone.
The anticipated high rainfall totals in combination with the recently dry conditions across parts of the Gulf Coast raise the concerns for flooding. The dry ground may be unable to absorb some of the heavier doses of rain, leading to quick runoff. Regardless, some of the rain will be heavy enough to lead to street and highway flooding.
There is also the potential for a few tornadoes and waterspouts along much of the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.
Portions of Texas and Louisiana continue to feel the weight of a substantial drought. A staggering 58% of the state of Louisiana is in exceptional drought, the highest drought category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Furthermore, 85% of the state is experiencing one of the top two highest drought categories.
The drought in this area of the country has, in part, been contributing to the low river levels along the Lower Mississippi River.
The rainfall in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi may help the drought but is unlikely to assist much with low water levels, with the rain falling too far south.
"Because of the rain falling mostly on the Mississippi Delta region, where there is little inflow to the main stem of the river, and because the ground will tend to absorb some of the rain, little water level rise is likely," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "Any slowdown in the advance of saltwater intrusion is likely to be slight and temporary."
This week, another storm moving across the north-central region has a better chance of bringing a minor and temporary rise above the record-challenging low river levels, but not until many weeks later, Sosnowski added.
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