Strengthening Erin to fuel dangerous surf, coastal flood risk from Carolinas to New England
Strengthening Tropical Storm Erin is expected to take a path between the United States East Coast and Bermuda next week bringing powerful seas and dangerous surf.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter provides insight into Tropical Storm Erin’s movement and the direction of its wind shear.
Erin is expected to strengthen rapidly this weekend, potentially intensifying from a tropical storm to a major Category 3 hurricane or stronger within hours. After departing the Caribbean, Erin will set its sights on the East Coast of the United States, with the severity of impacts dependent on its track..
"Erin is moving into a zone of warm water and low wind shear that were already fostering strengthening while east of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean on Thursday," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
How long Erin tracks west before turning to the north will determine how close it comes to the East Coast and Bermuda and how widespread the impacts may be next week.
"At this time, impacts are expected to include dangerous surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding. However, conditions may worsen along the U.S. Atlantic coast, if Erin's track shifts farther west," DaSilva said.
Even beyond the Caribbean, the strength and position of high pressure over the central Atlantic—along with an approaching dip in the jet stream—will be key players in determining Erin's track next week.
If the high consolidates in size, steering winds from the jet stream would keep Erin well east of the U.S.
A broad area of high pressure to the west could block the steering winds of the jet stream, potentially allowing Erin to drift perilously close to the U.S. East Coast.
“People along the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England and Atlantic Canada, as well as Bermuda, should monitor forecast updates closely into next week," DaSilva said.
At this time, AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists expects the most likely path of Erin to keep the dangerous eye of the hurricane east of the United States.
However, Erin is forecast to grow in size and strength. Its field of influence may become extensive, with tropical storm conditions possibly extending outward from the center by 100 miles or more.
Protruding coastal areas—such as North Carolina’s Outer Banks, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts—face a higher risk of direct and potentially severe tropical storm or hurricane conditions than much of the southern Atlantic, mid-Atlantic and northern New England coasts.
Proximity to the U.S. East Coast will determine the severity of impacts from Florida to Massachusetts and, later, for Atlantic Canada. Even if Erin's center stays east of North Carolina, storm surge of several feet—combined with wave action—could inundate access roads and force closures. Among the roads that could be inundated or subject to overwash would be portions of Highway 17 on the Outer Banks.
“Erin has not yet started to curve north, as of Thursday morning. The longer Erin tracks west before turning north, the odds increase of impacts potentially reaching the East Coast. Beach erosion is a growing concern,” DaSilva warned.
One of the most certain impacts from this system will be dangerous surf and frequent, strong rip currents along the U.S. East Coast, as well as coastal areas of Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
“Be vigilant if you’re going to an East Coast beach next week. Be aware of rip current warning signs and lonly swim in areas with lifeguards on duty,” DaSilva said.
Offshore wave heights may exceed 50 feet at the height of the storm. Waves of this magnitude can be perilous for large freighters and cruise ships and extremely dangerous for small craft.
These massive waves will propagate outward from the center as large swells, reaching coastal areas in the form of powerful breakers. Much of the U.S. East Coast can expect breakers of 5-10 feet in the surf zone. However, in areas of land that extend farther east—such as the Outer Banks, eastern Long Island and Cape Cod—breakers of 10-15 feet are likely.
In Bermuda, waves buffeting the islands may reach 15-25 feet, depending on the proximity of Erin.
As with the U.S. Atlantic coast, conditions in Bermuda will depend heavily on the storm's track and how close it passes.
Wind gusts across the islands are forecast to generally range from 40–60 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph expected in the most extreme locations.
A general 2-4 inches is forecast, but less wind and rain could occur if Erin's track is more than 100 miles to the west.
“People along the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England and Atlantic Canada, as well as Bermuda, should monitor forecast updates closely through the weekend and into next week,” DaSilva said.
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