Norma makes landfall in Mexico
AccuWeather meteorologists say the storm's loss in wind intensity will not diminish the impacts across Mexico into the new week.
The powerful storm is predicted to make two landfalls in Mexico, and moisture from Norma could eventually fuel rainfall in the central United States.
Hurricane Norma made landfall on Mexico's Baja California Peninsula at 4:15 p.m. EDT Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane. Mainland Mexico was bracing for life-threatening impacts, as Norma was continuing to bear down on the region as a tropical storm late this weekend. Despite its decline in wind intensity, the storm remains a formidable threat and could help to fuel an outbreak of drenching rain in parts of the United States in the new week, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Norma rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the East Pacific from Wednesday to Thursday morning, as accurately predicted by AccuWeather meteorologists. The now tropical storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph as of early Sunday afternoon while swirling 120 miles west of Culiacan, Mexico. Norma was crawling to the northeast at a forward speed of 5 mph.
Tropical Storm Norma, as seen on AccuWeather RealVue™ Enhanced Satellite as of early Sunday afternoon, local time, Oct. 22, 2023.
Norma to unload heavy rain in Mexico
Norma did not make landfall in Mexico as a major hurricane like the last tropical system to hit the country did just weeks ago. Major Hurricane Lidia struck Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale just to the south of Puerto Vallarta. It had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it crashed ashore on Oct. 10, 2023.
"Norma will continue to lose wind intensity as it encounters land and cooler waters," AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
The storm will make two landfalls in Mexico, with the first having already occurred on Saturday evening along the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and the second possibly as a tropical storm on the western coast of the country's mainland.
Heavy, tropical downpours are likely along Norma's path even as the storm's wind intensity steadily declines.
The first round of dangerous and damaging conditions occurred over the southern part of the Baja Peninsula, including the city of La Paz, Mexico earlier on Sunday.
Heavy rain could lead to incidents of life-threatening flash flooding, mudslides and washouts from the southern part of the Baja Peninsula to the west-central coast of mainland Mexico.
AccuWeather's team of tropical experts are calling for up to eight inches of rain in part of the region with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 17 inches.
Powerful winds can knock down trees and power lines, as well as damage some structures near where Norma makes its first encounter with land on Saturday.
The second landfall and corresponding second round of torrential rain with life-threatening conditions will likely unfold in the zone from Mazatlán to Culiacán spanning Sunday to Monday. Locally damaging winds can occur in these areas as well, but heavy rain will remain the greatest risk to life and property.
AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Norma as 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Mexico.
What will happen to Norma in the new week?
The guiding forces of Norma into the new week will be complex and largely dictated by non-tropical weather features. "A big player will be the position of the jet stream over the western United States into [the new] week," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg.
"If that jet stream dips far enough to the south, it will pick up Norma and fling it swiftly northeastward and into the interior Southwest and southern Plains of the U.S. [in the new] week," Lundberg explained. "But, if that jet stream dip is more shallow, Norma could miss the tug and may hover near the coast of Mexico through much of [the] week while slowly diminishing over churned-up cooler waters."
AccuWeather meteorologists are favoring a solution that brings at least some rain into the south-central United States during the first part of the week. In this scenario, the main core of Norma's circulation would diminish over western Mexico.
"There should be enough of a jet stream dip to help pull some Gulf of Mexico moisture northward," Lundberg said. "But, how dynamic that is will depend on the jet stream dip intensity and whether or not some of Norma's moisture and energy are also involved."
Any rain over the Central states would be welcome due to long-lasting and far-reaching drought conditions.
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