Norma to help fling needed moisture into the south-central US
The wet weather, thanks in part to a former major hurricane in the East Pacific, will be welcomed due to far-reaching drought conditions but could be heavy enough to trigger travel troubles and incidents of flash flooding.
From the lingering effects of a hurricane pushing through Mexico to a warmup following winterlike temperatures, here’s a rundown of the biggest weather stories forecasters expect from Oct. 22-28.
Good news is on the way for drought-stricken areas spanning New Mexico, West Texas and into the central Plains, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Soaking rain is expected to expand northeastward across the region for the new week, thanks in part to a former major hurricane in the East Pacific -- Norma -- as as well as a large plunge in the jet stream out West.
"Any rain over the Central states would be welcomed due to long-lasting and far-reaching drought conditions," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
With the potential for tropical moisture to come into play, however, AccuWeather forecasters warn that there may be too much of a good thing at one time for some areas.
Downpours to help cut into precipitation deficits
Drought conditions ranging in severity from moderate to exceptional encompass large portions of the South Central states and expand westward into part of the Four Corners region, according to the latest outlook from the United States Drought Monitor.
The dry conditions flourished over the summer months and first part of fall with locations such as Dallas and San Antonio picking up less than 30% of the historical average since June 1. For example, Dallas typically receives more than 13 inches of rain from June 1 to Oct. 20, but only received a mere 3.12 inches.
"The drought has been so significant that it has been producing record-low levels on the Mississippi River, which in turn has resulted in a severe reduction in the transport of goods on the waterway and the intrusion of salt water into the drinking supply in southern Louisiana," Sosnowski said.
Although the upcoming rain will not entirely wipe out the parched conditions or ease river level concerns, AccuWeather forecasters say enough rain can fall to at least put a dent in some of the precipitation deficits across the region.
Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"Because most of the rain is likely to be spread out over many hours, the dry ground will tend to absorb the water rather than go directly into filling streams and progressively larger rivers. However, there are likely to be pockets where intense rain falls in a few hours and runs off rapidly due to hard-packed soil or rocky soil conditions," Sosnowski said.
This flash flood potential may be most likely in portions of southern and eastern New Mexico, West Texas, Oklahoma and perhaps into Kansas during the first half of the new week. It is in these areas where 1-3 inches of rain may fall, with higher amounts possible.
Motorists will need to be wary of slippery spots as the first raindrops begin to fall as the wet conditions mix with oil buildup on the roadways. As the rain continues, reduced visibility from downpours will also become a hazard.
Timing of the rain
The least clear cut part of the forecast across the South Central states is the exact timing of the heaviest precipitation, as well as how long it lasts, for the new week. This is due to the fact that there are several moving parts in the atmosphere that will dictate how the rain event plays out over the week.
"The timing of potential heavy rainfall moving through Texas will be heavily influenced by a storm in the jet stream moving across Southern California on Monday and how that interacts with Norma," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
Winds high up in the atmosphere associated with the southward dip in the jet stream will begin to pull Norma's tropical moisture north and northeast across Mexico and into the United States perhaps as quickly as Monday and Tuesday.
"If this storm moves quickly to the east, heavy rainfall could move into central Texas as early as midweek. However, with a slower movement of this storm, heavy rain may be confined to western portions of Texas and linger into Thursday. Regardless of where the rain falls, in most areas, it will be welcome," Pydynowski said.
The speed of the storm along the West coast will also have implications on how fast a plunge of cold air with snow will dive southward out of Canada during the final days of October. AccuWeather forecasters expect an outburst of cold and snow perhaps as early as late week in part of the Rockies. There is the potential for this to be the first big snow event of the season for the interior West.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
