New tropical threat may emerge near Southeast coast by mid-July

An area from the southern Atlantic coast to the northeast Gulf is being watched closely for tropical development around the middle of July, similar to where Chantal developed earlier in the month.

In a pattern similar to early July, AccuWeather meteorologists are watching closely an area along the southeastern coast of the United States for the next round of tropical development in the Atlantic basin. A second area north of Bermuda could generate tropical activity as well.

Tropical depressions and storms tend to form close to Central America, the Caribbean and the waters adjacent to the southern U.S. early in the hurricane season. The area that gave birth to Chantal has been under close scrutiny by AccuWeather since the middle of June.

The third tropical depression of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season formed late on Independence Day afternoon, then went on to become Tropical Storm Chantal the next week. Chantal formed in response to a stalled front and a weak dip in the jet stream. Chantal moved inland earlier in the week and brought flooding rain to parts of the Carolinas.

While conditions are likely to remain quiet in the tropical Atlantic for the next few days, the same zone along the southern Atlantic coast, and especially the northeast Gulf, has a low chance of brewing another tropical depression or storm from July 15 to 18.

For the setup in mid-July, the front is weaker and the jet stream dip is not as pronounced as that of around Independence Day. However, wind shear (disruptive winds) may be a bit lighter compared to earlier in the month. Balancing the concerns out, there is a low chance of development.

Should development take place on the Atlantic side of Florida, it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast. Should development occur on the Gulf side of Florida, which is looking more plausible at this time, steering breezes could guide the area of interest westward along the northern Gulf coast.

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In either case, showers and thunderstorms can increase in coastal areas and adjacent waters offshore even if a storm center fails to form. Should a center form, more substantial rain and wind, with building surf, would unfold. The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2025 season is Dexter.

Another area where tropical activity could blossom and organize is located well off the Carolina coast to north of Bermuda, roughly from July 13-15.

"In both zones near the Gulf and north of Bermuda, it will be a stalling front that could help kickstart tropical activity," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Conditions remain too hostile for tropical development farther to the south from the western shores of Africa through the Caribbean through at least the middle of July.

Vast areas of dry air, dust from the Sahara Desert and disruptive winds are the main factors against development.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is about one month ahead of the historical average, with three named storms already forming. Typically, the third tropical storm does not form until early August, or about a month after Chantal formed. The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11, and the first major (Category 3) hurricane generally forms around the start of September.

AccuWeather's team of tropical meteorologists expects 13 to 18 tropical storms, of which seven to ten will become hurricanes and three to five are likely to evolve into major hurricanes, for the 2025 season. DaSilva and his team were expecting a busy first part of the hurricane season back in the late winter and early spring. That has been the case.

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