Hurricane season to shift gears after unusual lull in storms
Forecasters have adjusted the stormy forecast for 2025 following a rare lull during what is typically the busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, joined Bernie Rayno to discuss the recent revisions to AccuWeather’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.
The heart of hurricane season has been uncharacteristically quiet, and that lull has prompted AccuWeather to adjust its forecast for the number of storms expected in 2025.
“Unusual surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa and other atmospheric conditions have hampered multiple tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, during what are typically the peak weeks of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained.
A satellite image of Erin around the time it was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean. (NOAA)
Forecasters now expect 13 to 16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes this year. That’s the first revision to the tropical forecast since March, when the call was for 13 to 18 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes.
However, the overall U.S. risk has not changed. AccuWeather still projects that three to six storms will make landfall or come close enough to cause major impacts. This count includes Chantal, which made landfall in South Carolina in July, and Erin, which hammered East Coast beaches in August.
Despite the current calm, forecasters caution that the season is far from over. Activity is likely to ramp up again later in September and continue into October.
“It is important to remember that Helene and Milton both developed well after the climatological peak of the season last year," DaSilva said. “It only takes one storm to create a devastating hurricane season.”
One factor that is 'extremely concerning'
Conditions across the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean are expected to become more conducive to tropical storms and hurricanes in the coming weeks. Two of the biggest concerns are the near-record high water temperatures at the surface and how deep the warm water extends, known as ocean heat content.
"The presence of such warm water remains extremely concerning because storms that can take advantage of that 'high octane' fuel," DaSilva said.
"If any tropical system is able to make it to the western Caribbean or into the Gulf later this tropical season, rapid intensification would be likely."
A map showing water temperatures across the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. Areas that are orange and red indicate where the water is much water than historical averages. (NASA Worldview)
AccuWeather hurricane experts continue to highlight northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas of higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season. Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, are also at an increased risk of direct impacts for the rest of the season.
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