Gulf downpours reach Texas, as Hawaii braces for tropical winds
Downpours capable of triggering localized flash flooding will spread over parts of eastern Texas to end the week. A budding tropical rainstorm may cause winds and fire risk to increase in Hawaii.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva provides the latest update on the tropics and potential storm development as we move through the end of July and head into August.
A swirl of clouds, downpours and gusty thunderstorms will continue to migrate westward across the northern Gulf into the end of the week and will spread some locally heavy rain from southern Louisiana to parts of Texas on Saturday. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that there could be flash flooding in some areas and the tropical Central Pacific may even spring to life.
This image was captured on Friday afternoon, July 25, 2025, and shows a swirl of clouds and embedded thunderstorms along the Texas coast (upper left of center) and another cluster of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean (lower center). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Some of the biggest rainfall totals so far from the mass of downpours and thunderstorms have been in northern Florida. Tallies include 3.58 inches from Gainesville, Florida, spanning Monday to Wednesday. Meanwhile, Tallahassee, Florida, picked up 1.10 inches on Wednesday evening alone, with close to an inch falling on Biloxi, Mississippi. In a little less than three hours on Thursday afternoon, New Orleans picked up just over 2 inches of rain.
New Orleans, as well as Baton Rouge, Lafayette and Lake Charles, Louisiana, and the Houston, Beaumont and Corpus Christi, Texas, metro areas may experience a couple of bouts of torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms that can cause travel problems.
Some of the storm's moisture is likely to turn northward over Louisiana and northeastern Texas, rather than just push hundreds of miles to the west through central Texas. Dallas may experience a drenching downpour or thunderstorm on Saturday. Multiple drenching thunderstorms are possible in Shreveport and Monroe, Louisiana, over the weekend.
"Some downpours are forecast to reach as far west as Austin and the Hill Country west of San Antonio, Texas, this weekend," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "While highly localized flash flooding may occur, the magnitude of the flooding disaster along the Guadalupe River should not be repeated in this particular episode."
Some quick but minor rises along small streams and normally dry streambeds may occur, so people traveling through or living along those locations should remain vigilant.
There will be a similar setup for late July around the Georgia coast and the northeast Gulf coast to this past week. The track of the storm over land versus offshore will determine its development potential. Downpours will result regardless.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Vast areas of disruptive breezes (wind shear) and dry air are present over the prime development zones of the Atlantic and are likely to persist over the next one to two weeks.
Tropical waves moving westward from Africa are showing a bit more vigor and moisture than at any other point so far this season, and there is typically a big uptick in activity in tropical Atlantic during August.
One tropical wave brought showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Leeward and Windward islands around midweek. That tropical wave was bringing a significant pulse in drenching thunderstorms in the western end of the Caribbean to parts of southern Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras to close out the week. This feature has run out of time to develop.
Another tropical wave farther to the east has a low chance of developing from the middle of next week into the first weekend of August.
Meanwhile in the central Pacific
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the goings-on in the Pacific basin.
One area, well southeast of Hawaii, has a high chance of evolving into a tropical depression or storm by the start of the upcoming week. The first name on the list for tropical storms that form in the Central Pacific in 2025 is Iona.
The rain-sheltered portions of the Hawaiian Islands are becoming a bit of a tinderbox. Just over 50% of the Hawaiian Islands are in moderate drought or worse, with portions of the Big Island experiencing extreme drought. The islands could use a dose of drenching rain, but it seems the budding tropical rainstorm to the south may be too far away to help. It could raise some problems, however.
"Lower pressure to the south of the Hawaiian Islands next week, combined with a strong area of high pressure to the north, will allow for increased trade winds across the Islands starting on Tuesday," DaSilva said. "Some of the winds can be strong at times."
"While this setup is not the same intensity as the one that allowed the Maui wildfires to rapidly spread around the time of Hurricane Dora in 2023, a high wildfire danger can still exist across the islands next week," DaSilva added.
Right on the heels of the potential tropical development southeast of a Hawaii, a second area is also being monitored for a low risk of tropical development.
Another zone being watched for tropical development in the Pacific is many hundreds of miles farther to the east yet well enough off Central America and Mexico to be of concern only for shipping and perhaps some enhanced wave action along the coast.
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