Forecasters warn Atlantic to come alive with tropical cyclones again
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep 28, 2020 11:50 AM EST
The blistering pace of the record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season came to a sudden stop last week, but forecasters warn that the basin appears ready to fire up once again beginning later this week.
This image, captured on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, shows the Atlantic to be void of organized tropical systems. There are clusters of thunderstorms evident from the southern and eastern Caribbean Sea to the south-central Atlantic, but wind shear was inhibiting large-scale development. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
The pause in the Atlantic came after a flurry of tropical activity. Tropical Storm Beta weakened over the South after it unleashed torrential rainfall over Texas, as Hurricane Teddy lost its tropical status before it slammed Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, Paulette weakened for a second time after it had regenerated near the Azores. Sept. 24 marked the first day since Sept. 6, or 18 days, that the Atlantic was void of any tropical cyclones spinning across the basin.
Twenty storms out of 23 that churned across the ocean so far this season became the earliest ever to develop for their respective letter or number, and many of those shattered records set during the historic 2005 season, which spawned notorious storms Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
The current lull in tropical activity is forecast to last through at least Thursday, but more early-formation records are likely to fall this season. The earliest-ever 24th named storm was set on Oct. 27, 2005, by Beta, and the next three storms from numbers 25 through 27 were set during November. 2005 was the only other season to ever use Greek letters to name systems.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"A tropical disturbance interacting with a broad counter-clockwise wind pattern over Central America, commonly referred to as a gyre, will cause low pressure to form over the northwestern Caribbean late this week and during the weekend," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
"This area of low pressure has about a 50-70% chance of evolving into an organized tropical feature during this weekend or early next week," Kottlowski added.
A vast area of disruptive strong breezes, known as wind shear, will be the main factor keeping the Atlantic quiet into the end of the week. This shear zone is acting as a shield against tropical systems from forming and from swinging northward toward the U.S., Canada and Bermuda. During the weekend, this protective barrier may begin to weaken.
If a system develops over the northwestern Caribbean, there is still a range of scenarios for its potential movement. It could either drift inland over southern Mexico, wander around over the Gulf of Mexico or possibly hitch a northward ride toward Florida late this weekend and the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. during the second week of October.
"If the system develops and starts to drift northward, it can get scooped up rather quickly, but if it is slow to develop and lingers in the western Caribbean, then it will likely miss the ride northward and then have no option but to drift westward into southern Mexico and Central America," Kottlowski said.
There is also another scenario where two systems form within a few days of each other instead of one system. In this idea, one system would travel westward into Central America and the other would form near Cuba and wander northward.
And the Caribbean isn't the only zone that warrants a close watch, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
Thousands of miles farther to the east, "a strong tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa this Friday may also develop near the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend or early next week," Kottlowski said.
The 2005 season holds the record for the number of tropical storms with 28, including six storms that were given Greek letters as names. This season will take a run at that record, as AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting 28 named storms this season.
From the start in the spring, AccuWeather long-range meteorologists, led by veteran Kottlowski, stressed that an above-average season was coming. By the middle of the summer, AccuWeather also warned that a hyperactive peak hurricane season was about to unfold.
There have been eight hurricanes, two of which strengthened into major hurricanes -- Category 3 strength or greater. Teddy and Laura both peaked at Category 4 strength. Maximum sustained winds with Laura, which made landfall in southwestern Louisiana in late August, were 150 mph. Maximum sustained winds with Teddy were 140 mph. While Bermuda dodged the brunt of Teddy, it struck Nova Scotia as a potent post-tropical storm on Sept. 23.
AccuWeather is expecting a total of 13 hurricanes with six major hurricanes and at least one more direct impact, or landfall, in the United States. Nine storms have already struck the U.S. in 2020, tying a record for the most land-falling storms in the continental U.S. in a season, previously set in 1916.
The next storms to develop in the basin will be given the names Gamma and Delta, the next two letters in the Greek alphabet. Both may be utilized by the middle of October.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Forecasters warn Atlantic to come alive with tropical cyclones again
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep 28, 2020 11:50 AM EST
The blistering pace of the record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season came to a sudden stop last week, but forecasters warn that the basin appears ready to fire up once again beginning later this week.
This image, captured on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, shows the Atlantic to be void of organized tropical systems. There are clusters of thunderstorms evident from the southern and eastern Caribbean Sea to the south-central Atlantic, but wind shear was inhibiting large-scale development. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
The pause in the Atlantic came after a flurry of tropical activity. Tropical Storm Beta weakened over the South after it unleashed torrential rainfall over Texas, as Hurricane Teddy lost its tropical status before it slammed Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, Paulette weakened for a second time after it had regenerated near the Azores. Sept. 24 marked the first day since Sept. 6, or 18 days, that the Atlantic was void of any tropical cyclones spinning across the basin.
Twenty storms out of 23 that churned across the ocean so far this season became the earliest ever to develop for their respective letter or number, and many of those shattered records set during the historic 2005 season, which spawned notorious storms Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
The current lull in tropical activity is forecast to last through at least Thursday, but more early-formation records are likely to fall this season. The earliest-ever 24th named storm was set on Oct. 27, 2005, by Beta, and the next three storms from numbers 25 through 27 were set during November. 2005 was the only other season to ever use Greek letters to name systems.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"A tropical disturbance interacting with a broad counter-clockwise wind pattern over Central America, commonly referred to as a gyre, will cause low pressure to form over the northwestern Caribbean late this week and during the weekend," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
"This area of low pressure has about a 50-70% chance of evolving into an organized tropical feature during this weekend or early next week," Kottlowski added.
A vast area of disruptive strong breezes, known as wind shear, will be the main factor keeping the Atlantic quiet into the end of the week. This shear zone is acting as a shield against tropical systems from forming and from swinging northward toward the U.S., Canada and Bermuda. During the weekend, this protective barrier may begin to weaken.
If a system develops over the northwestern Caribbean, there is still a range of scenarios for its potential movement. It could either drift inland over southern Mexico, wander around over the Gulf of Mexico or possibly hitch a northward ride toward Florida late this weekend and the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. during the second week of October.
"If the system develops and starts to drift northward, it can get scooped up rather quickly, but if it is slow to develop and lingers in the western Caribbean, then it will likely miss the ride northward and then have no option but to drift westward into southern Mexico and Central America," Kottlowski said.
There is also another scenario where two systems form within a few days of each other instead of one system. In this idea, one system would travel westward into Central America and the other would form near Cuba and wander northward.
And the Caribbean isn't the only zone that warrants a close watch, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
Thousands of miles farther to the east, "a strong tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa this Friday may also develop near the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend or early next week," Kottlowski said.
Related:
The 2005 season holds the record for the number of tropical storms with 28, including six storms that were given Greek letters as names. This season will take a run at that record, as AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting 28 named storms this season.
From the start in the spring, AccuWeather long-range meteorologists, led by veteran Kottlowski, stressed that an above-average season was coming. By the middle of the summer, AccuWeather also warned that a hyperactive peak hurricane season was about to unfold.
There have been eight hurricanes, two of which strengthened into major hurricanes -- Category 3 strength or greater. Teddy and Laura both peaked at Category 4 strength. Maximum sustained winds with Laura, which made landfall in southwestern Louisiana in late August, were 150 mph. Maximum sustained winds with Teddy were 140 mph. While Bermuda dodged the brunt of Teddy, it struck Nova Scotia as a potent post-tropical storm on Sept. 23.
AccuWeather is expecting a total of 13 hurricanes with six major hurricanes and at least one more direct impact, or landfall, in the United States. Nine storms have already struck the U.S. in 2020, tying a record for the most land-falling storms in the continental U.S. in a season, previously set in 1916.
The next storms to develop in the basin will be given the names Gamma and Delta, the next two letters in the Greek alphabet. Both may be utilized by the middle of October.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo