Tropical activity to ramp up into the Fourth of July weekend
The eastern Pacific may soon have its sixth tropical storm of the 2025 hurricane season. Meanwhile, the tropics are heating up in the Atlantic.
Stunning video captured by Kevin Frelich provides a frighteningly up-close look at two waterspouts swirling on the Gulf Coast.
The Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins will enter an active stretch into next week. AccuWeather hurricane experts warn there could be potential impacts to the southeastern United States during the holiday weekend.
Tropical rainstorm forms in the Bay of Campeche
A tropical rainstorm formed in the Atlantic Basin early Saturday morning. Some strengthening is expected and there is a chance it may reach tropical-storm status as it tracks northwestward before making landfall in Mexico late this weekend. The next name on the list is Barry.
"This tropical rainstorm would only have 24-48 hours of time over the Bay of Campeche to develop, still, very warm sea-surface temperatures can allow the rainstorm to develop into a short-lived tropical storm before making landfall," said Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.
If the rainstorm is able to reach tropical-storm status, it would be the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The average date for the second named storm is July 17.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall can occur across portions of eastern Mexico leading to flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain. The rainstorm will also bring gusty winds near where it makes landfall in Mexico.
Due to flooding rain and gusty winds, this tropical rainstorm is a less than 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
Risk for development during Fourth of July weekend
AccuWeather hurricane experts are monitoring an area along portions of the Gulf and Atlantic coast for tropical development during the holiday weekend, a common area for development early in July.
"A cold front will dive off the coast late next week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," adds DaSilva. "Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area."
Due to these factors, there is a low risk of tropical development in this broad region from July 4-7.
Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop.
Eastern Pacific remains active
The start of the eastern Pacific tropical season has been an active one so far with five named storms and two hurricanes, including Hurricane Erick which rapidly intensified into a major hurricane before making landfall in southern Mexico on June 19.
The active stretch will continue as AccuWeather hurricane experts are tracking a tropical rainstorm, currently south of Mexico. Further intensification is expected and the rainstorm is forecast to become a tropical storm by the end of the weekend as it moves parallel to the Mexican coast. The next name on the list is Flossie.
"If the tropical rainstorm becomes named it will be the sixth named storm of the season AccuWeather," adds DaSilva. "The average date for the sixth named storm is Aug. 3.
While most of the wind will remain offshore, there can still be strong gusts along the southwestern coast of Mexico into next week. Heavy rain is also expected to occur across southwestern Mexico which can lead to flooding and localized mudslides in the terrain. If the rainstorm tracks closer to the coast, there can be higher rainfall amounts and wind gusts.
The rainstorm will also bring dangerous waves, rip currents and storm surge to the Mexican coast through next week.
Due to flooding rain, this tropical rainstorm is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
