Whether or not people obey hurricane evacuation orders in 2020 boils down to these 3 things
By
Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published May 27, 2020 12:08 AM EDT
2019's Atlantic hurricane season was a busy one and AccuWeather's forecasters are anticipating another active season for 2020.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is bringing unprecedented challenges amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, but new research could help to save lives when tropical systems make landfall.
People all along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast should take some time now to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. This includes making an evacuation plan in the event that a powerful hurricane is approaching your area.
Evacuation orders are common along coastal areas when tropical storms and hurricanes approach, especially in areas susceptible to storm surge. Flooding from storm surge is the deadliest aspect of hurricanes, according to the National Weather Service, so people that live in areas prone to storm surge should evacuate when the orders are given. However, some still choose to stay behind.
The reasoning behind this decision has been a topic studied by meteorologists and emergency managers for years, but new research may reveal why some people adhere to evacuation orders while others stay to ride out the storm.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Washington sought to answer this question, but researchers there took a different approach than previous studies. Instead of analyzing demographics such as gender and income, they conducted a study that focused on the social sciences.
"If you know someone's cultural worldview, that gives you foundational knowledge for understanding how they are likely to respond to different kinds of information,” said NCAR scientist Rebecca Morss, the lead author of the new study.
Pedestrians walk into huge waves crashing over The Battery as Tropical Storm Irma hits Charleston, S.C., Monday, Sept. 11, 2017. (AP Photo/Mic Smith)
More than 200 Miami residents were asked about how they would react if a Category 4 hurricane was barreling toward South Florida, including if they would evacuate.
The decision on whether or not to evacuate boiled down to people’s cultural worldview and if they identified as an individualist or an egalitarian. Those that are individualistic tend to be more independent and self-reliant, while those that are egalitarian typically feel a stronger bond with society and put more trust in community cooperation.
“Respondents with stronger individualist worldviews said that they were about 25% less likely to evacuate,” said NCAR scientist Heather Lazrus, a co-author of the study.
“They also expressed less concern about the hurricane’s risk, more doubt that local and federal officials were well prepared for a hurricane, and less trust in information from public officials and the media,” Lazrus added.
This image provided by NASA shows Hurricane Florence from the International Space Station on Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2018, as it threatened the U.S. East Coast. (NASA via AP)
The results found in this study mirrored those found in studies concerning topics such as climate change.
"Previous studies have found that people with individualist worldviews tend to perceive longer-term environmental issues such as climate change as less risky," said Morss.
"We found that people with stronger individualist worldviews also perceive lower risks from near-term threats posed by an approaching hurricane."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Knowing this ahead of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could help officials communicate better with a wider audience, especially since AccuWeather is predicting this year to be a very active hurricane season.
"Some people only need one message, and they trust the authorities and they follow the official guidance," Morss said.
"For other people, they need to hear about the risk a number of times, perhaps in different ways or from different sources, or to see it for themselves. If you adjust your messaging, that can help people hear the information so they can make an informed decision,” Morss added.
This Sept. 10, 2017 file photo shows waves crashing over a seawall at the mouth of the Miami River from Biscayne Bay, Fla., as storm surge from Hurricane Irma impacts Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Another dynamic may also come into play this year when tropical systems threaten the U.S.: Disaster fatigue.
Months of stress and worrying over the coronavirus pandemic and its implications on society, the economy and everyday living has taken its toll on many Americans.
"They’re tired of seeing the numbers. They’re tired of seeing the news media. They’re tired," Bill Wheeler, Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator in Harris County, Texas, told AccuWeather reporter Bill Wadell.
This could make it more challenging to get urgent weather alerts across to the public, especially to those with a individualist worldview.
“Disaster fatigue is probably a coping mechanism rather than a character flaw,” psychologist and mental health worker for the American Red Cross Susan Silk told Wadell in a Skype interview. “What can meteorologists at this time and behavioral health people do to craft a message that people won’t tune out. That won’t induce yet more disaster fatigue.”
The threat of contracting COVID-19 could also be a deterrent for some people that are considering going to a shelter to ride out a hurricane.
“If we have to do mass congregate sheltering, what are the protocols we’re going to have in place? Are we going to have COVID-only shelters? How are we going to do evacuations?” Jared Moskowitz, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said in a press conference.
This will be one of the topics covered later this week during AccuWeather’s hurricane town hall as hurricane experts across the field come together to discuss the 2020 hurricane season during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Be sure to tune into the AccuWeather Network on Thursday, May 28 at 9 p.m. ET for the one hour special.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Whether or not people obey hurricane evacuation orders in 2020 boils down to these 3 things
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published May 27, 2020 12:08 AM EDT
2019's Atlantic hurricane season was a busy one and AccuWeather's forecasters are anticipating another active season for 2020.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is bringing unprecedented challenges amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, but new research could help to save lives when tropical systems make landfall.
People all along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast should take some time now to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. This includes making an evacuation plan in the event that a powerful hurricane is approaching your area.
Evacuation orders are common along coastal areas when tropical storms and hurricanes approach, especially in areas susceptible to storm surge. Flooding from storm surge is the deadliest aspect of hurricanes, according to the National Weather Service, so people that live in areas prone to storm surge should evacuate when the orders are given. However, some still choose to stay behind.
The reasoning behind this decision has been a topic studied by meteorologists and emergency managers for years, but new research may reveal why some people adhere to evacuation orders while others stay to ride out the storm.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Washington sought to answer this question, but researchers there took a different approach than previous studies. Instead of analyzing demographics such as gender and income, they conducted a study that focused on the social sciences.
"If you know someone's cultural worldview, that gives you foundational knowledge for understanding how they are likely to respond to different kinds of information,” said NCAR scientist Rebecca Morss, the lead author of the new study.
Pedestrians walk into huge waves crashing over The Battery as Tropical Storm Irma hits Charleston, S.C., Monday, Sept. 11, 2017. (AP Photo/Mic Smith)
More than 200 Miami residents were asked about how they would react if a Category 4 hurricane was barreling toward South Florida, including if they would evacuate.
The decision on whether or not to evacuate boiled down to people’s cultural worldview and if they identified as an individualist or an egalitarian. Those that are individualistic tend to be more independent and self-reliant, while those that are egalitarian typically feel a stronger bond with society and put more trust in community cooperation.
“Respondents with stronger individualist worldviews said that they were about 25% less likely to evacuate,” said NCAR scientist Heather Lazrus, a co-author of the study.
“They also expressed less concern about the hurricane’s risk, more doubt that local and federal officials were well prepared for a hurricane, and less trust in information from public officials and the media,” Lazrus added.
This image provided by NASA shows Hurricane Florence from the International Space Station on Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2018, as it threatened the U.S. East Coast. (NASA via AP)
The results found in this study mirrored those found in studies concerning topics such as climate change.
"Previous studies have found that people with individualist worldviews tend to perceive longer-term environmental issues such as climate change as less risky," said Morss.
"We found that people with stronger individualist worldviews also perceive lower risks from near-term threats posed by an approaching hurricane."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Knowing this ahead of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could help officials communicate better with a wider audience, especially since AccuWeather is predicting this year to be a very active hurricane season.
"Some people only need one message, and they trust the authorities and they follow the official guidance," Morss said.
"For other people, they need to hear about the risk a number of times, perhaps in different ways or from different sources, or to see it for themselves. If you adjust your messaging, that can help people hear the information so they can make an informed decision,” Morss added.
This Sept. 10, 2017 file photo shows waves crashing over a seawall at the mouth of the Miami River from Biscayne Bay, Fla., as storm surge from Hurricane Irma impacts Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Another dynamic may also come into play this year when tropical systems threaten the U.S.: Disaster fatigue.
Months of stress and worrying over the coronavirus pandemic and its implications on society, the economy and everyday living has taken its toll on many Americans.
"They’re tired of seeing the numbers. They’re tired of seeing the news media. They’re tired," Bill Wheeler, Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator in Harris County, Texas, told AccuWeather reporter Bill Wadell.
This could make it more challenging to get urgent weather alerts across to the public, especially to those with a individualist worldview.
“Disaster fatigue is probably a coping mechanism rather than a character flaw,” psychologist and mental health worker for the American Red Cross Susan Silk told Wadell in a Skype interview. “What can meteorologists at this time and behavioral health people do to craft a message that people won’t tune out. That won’t induce yet more disaster fatigue.”
Related:
The threat of contracting COVID-19 could also be a deterrent for some people that are considering going to a shelter to ride out a hurricane.
“If we have to do mass congregate sheltering, what are the protocols we’re going to have in place? Are we going to have COVID-only shelters? How are we going to do evacuations?” Jared Moskowitz, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said in a press conference.
This will be one of the topics covered later this week during AccuWeather’s hurricane town hall as hurricane experts across the field come together to discuss the 2020 hurricane season during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Be sure to tune into the AccuWeather Network on Thursday, May 28 at 9 p.m. ET for the one hour special.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo