AccuWeather Track and Wind Intensity Forecasts for Historic Hurricane Erick Earlier, More Accurate than Any Other Known Source
AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice to make the best decisions to better prepare for the storm’s impacts.
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A variety of videos show the range of impacts across the western Mexican coast when Hurricane Erick arrived on June 19.
Hurricane Erick made landfall in southern Mexico, as most accurately forecast by AccuWeather, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, resulting in significant wind damage, a damaging storm surge, major flooding and mudslides. Erick’s landfall as a major hurricane was historic, as it was the earliest recorded major hurricane landfall in Mexico.
On June 16 at 5 a.m. ET, AccuWeather issued a track and intensity forecast 12 hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its first track and intensity forecast. AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice to make the best decisions to better prepare for the storm’s impacts. When analyzed for the entire lifespan of Erick, AccuWeather's wind intensity and track forecasts for Erick were more accurate than any other known source and were 13% and 3% more accurate than the NHC, respectively.
• AccuWeather's first forecast track was issued on June 16 when an area of rain and thunderstorms over the eastern Pacific west of Costa Rica had not yet developed into an organized tropical storm. This exclusive track forecast provided 12 hours of additional advance notice ahead of the NHC and all other known sources.
• Recognizing the potential impacts to lives and property, AccuWeather began referring to this as a tropical rainstorm and correctly predicted it would intensify and make landfall in the state of in the Mexican state of Oaxaca early Thursday morning.
• This additional day of valuable advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for and react to the risks posed by the storm.
AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™, a unique tool that provides powerful weather insights into a company’s specific risk exposure at each of its asset locations, enables business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and important location-specific details, such as how much rain, wind and storm surge were expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations, supply chain, business continuity and supply chain concerns.
• On June 17 at 11 a.m. ET, AccuWeather Hurricane Experts correctly forecast Erick to become a major hurricane and make landfall in southern Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, exactly what occurred. This was 24 hours BEFORE the NHC and any other known source. The additional 24 hours of advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for Erick’s risks and impacts.
• AccuWeather’s forecast of the storm’s wind intensity averaged 13% more accurate as compared to the NHC and all other known sources.
• AccuWeather’s track forecast for the storm averaged 3% greater accuracy as compared to the NHC and all other known sources.
A view of a fallen tree by passage of Hurricane Erick in Chacahua, Oaxaca state, Mexico on June 19, 2025. (Photo by CARLO ECHEGOYEN/AFP via Getty Images)
More than 100 times every year, AccuWeather has been documented as providing more accurate, more advance notification of significant and extreme weather events that impact businesses and threaten the health, welfare and lives of individuals. AccuWeather is proven to be the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.â¯
These are additional examples of the many weather events for which AccuWeather provided superior forecasts and impact descriptions to people, communities and businesses, helping them better prepare and stay safer.â¯â¯â¯
CONTACT AccuWeather today to learn how AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service can better protect your business and keep your employees safer this hurricane season.
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