'Ring of fire' thunderstorms to ride rim massive heat dome through midweek
Thunderstorms will erupt on the edges of a huge heat dome encompassing the central and eastern United States through midweek. Some of the storms can be severe with high winds, flooding rain and even a tornado.
A determined New Yorker battles fierce wind and rain as their umbrella collapses during a summer storm in New York City on June 19.
A swath of thunderstorms, sometimes thousands of miles long, often goes along with huge heat domes across the United States during the summer. The weather pattern through the middle of this week will be no exception, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Because the air in much of the heat dome is warm through most layers of the atmosphere, clouds have difficulty forming, let alone thunderstorms. However, on the edges of the heat, especially along the northern and western flanks thereof, the air is cooler well above the ground, which makes it easier for clouds to tower and produce thunderstorms.
The pattern is referred to in the weather community as a "ring of fire," as thunderstorms tend to form along the edges of the heat dome. Within this ring, there can be spotty, individual thunderstorms, large clusters of thunderstorms or a solid line of storms that can repeat or meander back and forth as hot and cool air change hands.
During the afternoon and evening, when thunderstorms tend to be most active, towering clouds, downpours, thunder and lightning will extend from north-central Mexico to southeastern Canada and New England, an arc about 2,200 miles long.
If a location is within the thunder zone one day, it could remain in the same zone all week or possibly catch a break one day, only to be stormy the next consecutive days. Where the storms repeat, there will be a heightened risk of flash flooding. Any thunderstorm in the highlighted zones can pulse to severe intensity with high winds, frequent lightning strikes, hail and perhaps a brief tornado.
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Storms will target hard-hit areas of central and eastern upstate New York, as well as northern New England, western New York, northwestern Pennsylvania, northern Ohio, northern Indiana, southern Michigan and vast populated areas of southeastern Ontario and southern Quebec.
Tuesday will be another active day in terms of severe weather for the Plains states as well. Most of the severe thunderstorms will focus from the eastern halves of Colorado and Wyoming to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
More storms will erupt in both the Plains and Northeast states at midweek. Some severe thunderstorm activity will extend from the High Plains of Colorado, Wyoming and Montana to southern Michigan, northern Indiana and northern Ohio.
The severe weather threat will extend into the Northeast on the northern fringe of the heat dome as well on Wednesday. Picking up from northern Ohio and southern Michigan, the threat of locally severe thunderstorms will extend eastward through central and northern Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York to northern New Jersey and southern New England.
A similar threat will occur across the Southeast, as afternoon and evening thunderstorms can bring locally gusty winds and drenching downpours.
Locally severe thunderstorms will continue in parts of the Midwest on Thursday. Pockets of severe weather are likely to gradually fill in over the Southeast, South-Central, Midwest and Northeast states during the latter part of the week as the heat dome breaks down and the lid is removed for thunderstorms.
There will be thunderstorm activity on the southern edge of the heat dome as well.
Look for locally severe thunderstorms to become active along the central and southern Appalachians and as far south as the Gulf Coast on Thursday. Some heavy to locally severe storms will erupt in part of the mid-Atlantic as well.
The trade winds will be enhanced by the east-to-west breeze created by the high pressure area, associated with the heat dome, especially over the Florida Peninsula. While this pattern is often present during the summer, thunderstorms can be a bit stronger given that they are on the edge of the heat dome.
Most of the thunderstorms will tend to erupt just inland of the Florida Atlantic beaches and push westward across the Peninsula as the day progresses. By the time they reach the Gulf coast, they can be locally severe.
Significant flash flood risk in some locations
Torrential downpours will occur within the ring of fire, and they can persist to the point where flash flooding is likely.
One area of concern will be centered on New Mexico into midweek, where several inches of rain can pour down in as many hours.
The rocky, rugged terrain can enhance the flash flood risk. Streambeds that are dry most of the year, called arroyos, can rapidly fill with rushing water and pose a major risk to lives and property.
Another large pocket where downpours can be frequent enough to cause flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, as well as along small streams will extend from parts of the central Plains to a portion of the Midwest into Thursday.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for this zone, centered on central and northwestern Iowa, is 10 inches. Where excessive rain does not occur, some areas in the region need rain, as long-term abnormally dry to drought conditions are ongoing.
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