AccuWeather Proven Most Accurate in 38-Year Forecast Study, Outperforming National Weather Service Again in June 2025
The results are now in for June of 2025 in the ongoing 38-year study comparing the accuracy of the AccuWeather and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and AccuWeather continues its unrivaled record of proven Superior Accuracy™.
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The results are now in for June of 2025 in the ongoing 38-year study comparing the accuracy of the AccuWeather and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and AccuWeather continues its unrivaled record of proven Superior Accuracy™.
This study is by far the longest continuous verification comparing the accuracy of AccuWeather and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. We have been comparing forecast accuracy every day since January 1, 1988. Since 1998, the AccuWeather and NWS forecasts have also been compared to the automated forecast output created by the computer models run by the NWS, which has long been a basis for the NWS's forecasts.
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The study verifies the high and low-temperature forecasts for the upcoming day and night. Temperature was selected because the accuracy of temperature forecasts is measured by the NWS and can be compared in an objective, unbiased and scientific fashion. Comparing the forecast and actual temperatures is straightforward in that it is simply the difference between the forecast temperatures and the actual temperatures reported by the NWS.
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The site chosen for this study was Washington, DC, a forecast site that gives the NWS every advantage in this comparison. Since the NWS is headquartered, has its top management, and receives its oversight in the DC area, this should be the place where the NWS produces its best forecasts:
With that background in mind, here are the key points from the verifications for June 2025:
• In June, AccuWeather had a 1.50-degree F average error in Washington, DC, while the National Weather Service (NWS) had an average error of 1.85 F and the automated computer forecast 1.90 F. This means that the AccuWeather forecast was 23.3% more accurate than the NWS and 26.7% more accurate than the automated forecast output.
• The AccuWeather forecast has been more accurate than the NWS in more than 95% of the individual months since the study began in 1988 and AccuWeather has been more accurate in each and every one of the past 156 months since July 2012, which is 13 years of continual Superior Accuracy.
• AccuWeather has been more accurate than the automated computer forecasts in each and every one of the past 53 months. In contrast, the automated computer forecasts have been more accurate than those of the NWS in 5 of the past 10 months. This is especially significant because both AccuWeather and the NWS forecasts add the input of their meteorologists to the fully automated forecasts in their attempt to improve upon them. This demonstrates the additional value AccuWeather provides to the automated forecasts, which are generally used by AccuWeather's competition.
• Over the entire study period, AccuWeather forecasts were 16.1% more accurate than those of the NWS. In the past nine months, AccuWeather was more accurate by a very significant 36.4%.
• Over the entire study, AccuWeather forecasts have been 18.7% more accurate than the automated forecast outputs, while NWS forecasts have been 1.4% more accurate. This means that AccuWeather improved its forecasts over automated forecast output more than a dozen times as much as did the NWS.
• Over the past year, AccuWeather forecasts have been 32.5% more accurate than the NWS forecasts and 33.3% more accurate than the automated forecast output.
• The average margin of greater accuracy between the AccuWeather forecasts and what actually happened has been 1.20 degrees F over the past five years, which is the smallest difference between the forecast and actual temperatures in any five-year period of the study. Thus, AccuWeather forecasts continue to increase in accuracy.
• AccuWeather forecasts have been 18.1% more accurate than those of the NWS since the study began in 1988, 21.8% more accurate over the past five years, and 32.7% more accurate over the past year. Thus, AccuWeather’s edge in Superior Accuracy is continually increasing.
• AccuWeather forecasts have been 18.1% more accurate than those of the NWS since the study began in 1988, 18.9% more accurate over the past two decades, and 27.0% more accurate over the past decade. Thus, AccuWeather’s edge in Superior Accuracy seems to be continually increasing.
Contact AccuWeather For Business today for a free consultation to learn how your company can start receiving hyperlocal, site-specific forecasts and warnings to best prepare for all weather threats.
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