Models Struggle With Snow, Ice

This is going to be a really interesting 5-day period coming up. And by that, I mean "hard to forecast." Normally you'll see a storm system form and slowly evolve its shape as it moves in a general direction, like pollen in a stream. But the system which is forming in the heart of the country today will have multiple pulses of precipitation bulge out and move northeast along its front. Nothing shows this better than the animation of this morning's run of the NMM Forecast Models [JessePedia]. Check it out below.

As you can see from the link to the loop above, the NMM model believes that all three pulses of precipitation will be sleet and will affect central Oklahoma.

The DGEX starts too late to see the first or second pulse but it keeps sleet and freezing rain between the snow and rain, all the way into New England. So we could see a significant part of the nation having to deal with icy roads this weekend. It also suggests a sleet event in parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Below is our official forecast.

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