Models Confused on Eastern Storm(s)

There is mass confusion amongst the morning Forecast Models [JessePedia], even though this storm is only 3 days away. At this point I couldn't forecast snowfall reliably for any location in the East - we're going to have to wait for this one to play itself out. But even without the Nor'easter (see below), a significant winter storm for the Western Carolinas seems in order, though much of it will probably be ice.

Point #1: The NMM is not buying the GFS's Nor'easter solution at all, taking the storm straight off the coast (we weren't sure yesterday because the storm was in the Carolinas at the maximum forecast hour).

The last of the winter precip for the East Coast is shown here Thursday afternoon in the mid-Atlantic (the next forecast hour, it literally all disappears):

Because of the encroaching ice, snow amounts have been lowered from the NMM, it is now showing only 1-3 inches from the Hazzard Area [JessePedia] through south-central Virginia. NOTE: Don't be fooled by the bulls-eyes in the Appalachians; this is a snowcover map, including what was already on the ground; the storm itself does not drop any accumulation north or west of West Virginia.

The GFS is still going with its previous solution, but remember, the GFS is a long-range model which is lower in resolution than the preferred short-term model (NMM). Again, ice for the northern Deep South, Tennessee and North Carolina Thursday morning...

And snow for the Appalachians and most of the Northeast (a mix of snow and rain near the shores). This storm will be moving fast, according to the GFS, so heavy snow will not stay for long. In fact, the forecast period below (3 hours on Friday morning) was the only map that had moderate snow over much of Pennsylvania. This could mean that snowfall amounts will be held down by the quick passage of the storm.

Point #2: Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) caught the 6Z GFS showing another Nor'easter delivering a classic snow-blow to New England on Sunday into Monday:

But this was the 6Z Weird Run [JessePedia]. At the 12Z run, the GFS has given up on this solution, keeping the storm off the coast:

Sorry, Henry.