Ensemble Model Southeast Snow Probabilities

Southeasterners are getting pretty excited about snow late this weekend and into Monday. Looking at the NMM snow maps, you can understand why. The model is predicting up to 8 inches of snow in the Carolinas with light snow deep into the Deep South.

Since the individual models are still having trouble being consistent, we look to the Ensembles to give us the possibilities. In this case the SREF short-range ensembles, when averaged out, predict a swath of 2-3 inches of snow moving through the Carolinas (the black lines on the map below).

BUT the colors indicate that those amounts are "plus or minus" 4 inches! Meaning that the actual snowfall will range from 0 to 6 inches. Summary: Amounts are impossible to predict at this time.

REMEMBER: You can get all these maps on our !

Ignoring amounts, let's ask what the maximum probability of seeing snow is for each state? Summary: Pretty likely in parts of Mississippi and Alabama, but only a slight chance in Georgia and 50/50 shot in the Carolinas. (That said, remember that the models don't always show elevational effects well, so the mountains will have a greater chance than the lowlands).