A follow-up to my post from last Friday.
Moisture continues to increase from the southeast across New Mexico and Arizona, and this is likely to continue through midweek. Not only is the moisture increasing, but a weak upper-level disturbance will also be coming along in the flow and helping to enhance thunderstorm development.
The following is the sequence from the GFS showing precipitable water amounts over the next couple of days.
THIS EVENING:
WEDNESDAY MORNING:
THURSDAY MORNING:
As you can see moisture increases, not only moving more north and west but also the amount of moisture increases. This will mean that there will be more moisture available to develop thunderstorms and when thunderstorms develop they will bring more rain with them. It looks to be pretty active across Arizona Tuesday night into Thursday with the potential for locally heavy storms causing flash flooding and strong winds gusts that can produce dust storms. A thunderstorm could spread into portions of the lower deserts of California and north to Las Vegas by Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
It is not out of the question that enough moisture gets as far west as the mountains of San Diego County north to western San Bernardino County, but the richest moisture for now is most likely to stay east.
The moisture may retreat back to the east some Friday and Saturday then may make another surge west again early next week.
In fact the hottest day is going to be Saturday in many locations from the Central Coast to southwest California
The first day of the Eastern Pacific Tropical Season gives us the first tropical storm of the season.
this could be shaping up to be not only an early fire season but a bad one too
Coachella Music Festival temperatures are likely to be in the middle to upper 90s this weekend.
It always seems that hot weather arrives just in time for the festival and looking at the history that is mostly true.
If headed into or through any mountain areas, know ahead of time that snow levels are likely to drop to 2,000 feet in the Washington Cascades
Ken Clark
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