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    Brett Anderson

    New Weekly Model Forecast Update

    11/09/2012, 4:30:46 AM

    Here is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF model forecast output for North America....





    The ECMWF seasonal forecast (updated once a month) was also just released yesterday......

    For the upcoming winter (DJF), the forecast model is fairly non-committal in terms of temperatures and precipitation across North America, which is no surprise now that it looks like we will have near-neutral ENSO.

    --Warm/dry central Rockies through SW U.S. --Not as mild over Alaska than earlier runs as the mean upper ridge is predicted to be farther west over northeast Russia instead of western Alaska. --Still showing a mean +NAO, but I am not putting much faith into that as I think the winter will be flipping more usual from +NAO to -NAO. --Slightly wetter around the Great Lakes. --Slightly colder than normal over NW Canada and the Prairies. --Milder than normal over Atlantic Canada thanks to the much warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures.

    As I mentioned earlier, I will issue an update to our winter forecast for Canada towards the end of this month.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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