New Weekly Model Forecast Update

Here is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF model forecast output for North America....

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The ECMWF seasonal forecast (updated once a month) was also just released yesterday......

For the upcoming winter (DJF), the forecast model is fairly non-committal in terms of temperatures and precipitation across North America, which is no surprise now that it looks like we will have near-neutral ENSO.

--Warm/dry central Rockies through SW U.S. --Not as mild over Alaska than earlier runs as the mean upper ridge is predicted to be farther west over northeast Russia instead of western Alaska. --Still showing a mean +NAO, but I am not putting much faith into that as I think the winter will be flipping more usual from +NAO to -NAO. --Slightly wetter around the Great Lakes. --Slightly colder than normal over NW Canada and the Prairies. --Milder than normal over Atlantic Canada thanks to the much warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures.

As I mentioned earlier, I will issue an update to our winter forecast for Canada towards the end of this month.