Gonzalo a Threat to Newfoundland
Heavy rainfall for southern Quebec Thursday
A slow-moving frontal system drawing up moisture from the tropics will produce heavy rainfall across much of southern Quebec Thursday and into Thursday night, leading to flooding of poor drainage areas and low-lying areas. Total rainfall should average anywhere from 25 to 70 mm across the region. The heavy rain will shift into New Brunswick Thursday night and Friday.
Gonzalo
Hurricane Gonzalo will pass not too far west of Bermuda Friday then will accelerate northeastward and possibly make landfall as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane over southeastern Newfoundland Saturday night. During that time the storm will be weakening as it moves over the colder water and in the process of transitioning to a non-tropical system.
Update: Some of the computer model guidance has shifted slightly to the east with the track, taking the center directly over the Avalon Peninsula compared to what I am showing with the graphic that we drew up earlier today.
--The main impacts from Gonzalo, assuming the track holds, will be Saturday evening across the eastern half of Newfoundland. Little or no impacts for the western half.
--This will be a fast-moving storm so that the storm duration will range from 6 to 8 hours max.
--West of where the center of circulation tracks the main issue with be heavy rain and some flooding of poor drainage areas and the potential for 25-75 mm of rain.
--East of where the center tracks will be the strong winds with much less in the way of rainfall, however, if the eastward shift becomes a trend then this would keep the damaging winds off the coast. At this point I still favor a landfall of the storm center somewhere over southeastern Newfoundland.
--Along and east of the storm track there will likely be widespread power outages along with downed trees and branches. Offshore seas could build anywhere from 6 to 8 meters.
Forecast of peak winds Saturday evening or night. (subject to change due to additional shifts in the track and intensity)
Immediate southeast coast of Newfoundland: Sustained 85-110 kmh, Gusts 120-150 kmh
St. John's area: Sustained 60-90 kmh, Gusts 95-120 kmh.
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