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Weekend Northeast storm to raise flash flood risk prior to any snow

The caboose in a train of storms brought a surge in heavy rain and urban flooding in the Northeast, but then a quick flip to colder air and even accumulating snow in some interior locations is forecast.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Mar 6, 2024 1:33 PM EDT | Updated Mar 10, 2024 5:06 AM EDT

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March 17, 2011 During major flooding, there are things you should do, and not do, to be safe.

Following a storm that drenched the Northeast from late Wednesday to early Thursday, a new storm will swing through the Northeast just in time for the weekend, which will trigger more travel problems related to localized flooding and even snow for some areas as it turns colder later on, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

Break between storms to end the week

The second rainstorm of the week moved off the Atlantic coast by way of Maine on Thursday afternoon. In much of the area from the Carolinas to Maine, 1-2 inches of rain fell in 12 hours. However, some coastal locations from eastern North Carolina to Long Island, New York and into southern New England picked up 2-3 inches of rain.

The period from Friday afternoon to Friday night ended up being the best part of the week for travel and outdoor plans throughout the Eastern Seaboard.

The region was in between two large storms -- the one that has recently departed and a new, complex storm that gathered moisture and strength over the Central states. As the new storm sweeps into the East, travel problems will continue to mount this weekend.

As that new storm system approached on Saturday, parts of eastern and northern New England squeezed out a mostly dry start to the weekend. The break allowed runoff to ease and small streams to recede a bit; however, the ground remained saturated.

Weekend storm duo to start warm then finish cold

There are two storms that AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking that will converge on the Northeast this weekend.

The first storm began to pull warm air through much of the Atlantic coast and into the Appalachians on Saturday, AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer said. The system continued to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean and wrung it out over the Northeast.

A slight wedge of cold air allowed rain to mix with and even change over to snow across the northern tier of New England Saturday night, especially over the higher elevations.

Travel could be slow and hazardous in many areas along the southeastern coast of New England early Sunday morning, with pouring rain leading to poor visibility and ponding on the roads. Gusty winds from the southeast will push Atlantic waters toward the coast, resulting in minor to moderate tidal flooding from the upper mid-Atlantic to eastern New England.

The second part of the storm duo dove southeastward from western Ontario and across the Great Lakes Saturday night. Heavy rain ended abruptly in the mid-Atlantic on Saturday night, progressing to southern New England early Sunday morning as dry air swept in from the west.

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"As the two storms combine, the injection of colder air will trigger a change to wet snow or snow showers over the central and northern Appalachians into Sunday morning and then even some bands of lake-effect snow around the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday," Bauer explained.

Warm road conditions are likely to generally confine regional slippery conditions from snow to the highest elevations from West Virginia to western Pennsylvania and western and northern New York and New England on Sunday. Some exceptions are possible on Sunday as snow showers erupt.

Because the air will turn colder much faster several thousand feet up, as opposed to near ground level, flurries will evolve into locally heavy snow showers and snow squalls during Sunday afternoon and evening from West Virginia and northern Virginia to Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and much of New York state.

The snow showers may bring a sudden drop in visibility and may cause roads to transition from dry to wet to slushy in a flash on Sunday. Brief bursts of rain and wet snow may reach to Interstate 95 from New York City to Philadelphia and Baltimore by the afternoon.

With the combination of the colder air and wind gusts frequenting 40-50 mph from Sunday to Monday, it will feel more like early February all over again in much of the Northeast. Accuweather RealFeel® Temperatures will dip into the single digits and teens over the interior Northeast and the 20s to 30s in the mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Wind gusts may get strong enough to trigger sporadic power outages.

As has been the case with most chilly outbreaks this winter, the cold shot will be brief, with conditions forecast to rebound to or above the historical average by the middle of this week.

More to read:

Tornado Alley may roar to life as severe weather season ramps up in US
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What to do when a flash flood hits

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