California to stay drought-free through 2025 following 2 winters of epic storms, AccuWeather experts say
AccuWeather meteorologists have high confidence that widespread drought conditions will remain absent in California through 2025, and potentially beyond.
On March 4, Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter announced the exclusive AccuWeather forecast for no widespread California drought for the next two years.
In the wake of a biblical blizzard that unloaded nearly 100 inches of snow on California, AccuWeather is making a major announcement: California will be free of widespread drought through at least 2025.
"The combination of the abundance of rain and snow from the winter of 2022-2023, the state of the reservoirs, and what has happened this winter gives a high confidence that drought conditions will remain absent in California well into 2025," AccuWeather California Weather Expert Ken Clark said.
This is good news for both the short-term drought concerns and the long-term battle against widespread drought. Years of drought took their toll on the state's water table, so back-to-back winters with blockbuster storms have replenished water reservoirs and quenched the parched landscape.
A drone view of the nearly-full Briones Reservoir in Orinda, Calif., on Monday, Feb. 12, 2024. The reservoir is currently at 97% capacity. (Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images)
"AccuWeather was the first source to indicate there would not be drought in California into 2025," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said, citing a drought forecast issued back in October. "This announcement builds on that past bold forecast."
How California went from drought to deluge
The winter of 2022-2023 was historic in California with a barrage of atmospheric rivers that washed away all of the widespread drought concerns across a state that was once parched for the better part of a decade.
"We here at AccuWeather knew by late summer 2023 that given the state of the reservoirs thanks to the unprecedented winter of 2022-2023, California would remain drought-free through at least 2024, and perhaps longer," Clark explained.
It has been another storm-filled winter in California, especially since the start of 2024. The exclamation point was a whopper of a storm that unloaded yards of snow over the state's mountains as the calendar flipped from February to March, making up for a relatively dry start to the winter -- and then some.
Six of the most important water reservoirs across the state are near or well above the historical average water levels and could rise further before the end of the wet season.
Reservoir levels could increase further with more storms possible before the end of the wet season in tandem with melting snow that runs off from the mountains in the coming weeks and months.
The levels of several water reservoirs across California, as of Monday, March 4, 2024.
"In the coming months, should warmth arrive with more intensity than the historic average, there could be localized flooding concerns, especially along creeks and streams, as melting of the massive snowpack accelerates," Porter added.
When will drought return to California?
Like a swinging pendulum, it is not the question of if drought will return to California, but when. The state largely relies on storms during the winter months for most of its rain and snow, and it can only take one dry winter to ring the alarm bells on a new emerging drought.
"In California, water is as precious of a commodity as gold, every drop of rain and flake of snow needs to be captured, as the population is bigger than the natural water supply," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "Conservation must never stop."
Houseboats rest in a channel at Lake Oroville State Recreation Area on March 26, 2023, left, and the same location on Aug. 14, 2021, in Butte County, Calif. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
One of the key factors when examining the long-term drought concerns for California rests near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean. When this zone of the Pacific is warmer than historical averages for an extended period of time, it results in El Niño, which typically directs more storms at California. Its inverse, La Niña, occurs when the water in this area of the Pacific is cooler and typically results in drier and milder winters for the Golden State.
AccuWeather predicts that the current El Niño will be swiftly replaced by La Niña before next winter, which increases the likelihood of dry weather on the horizon. However, that does not mean that a new drought is imminent.
"The eventual strength of the La Niña which develops will be one of the key factors in the duration of the drought-free period in California," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. "Should the La Niña remain relatively weak, there can be an extension of the time without widespread drought in California even beyond early 2026."
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