Tornado Alley may roar to life as the severe weather season ramps up in US
The 2024 severe weather season will be much different than 2023, and one part of the season is jumping out to AccuWeather meteorologists as the time to watch for intense tornadoes.
Paul Pastelok gives the AccuWeather predictions for tornadoes in the Spring of 2024.
The risk of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes is rising across the United States as severe weather season begins to ramp up, and it could prove to be much different than last year.
AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, is warning that it could be a slow start to the severe weather season, but it will escalate after reaching the midway point.
How many tornadoes will touch down in 2024?
Last year's severe weather season was flipped on its head, with 206 tornadoes touching down in March, more than double the monthly historical average of 80 and higher than the number of twisters that were observed in April or May. The majority of tornadoes struck areas outside of the traditional Tornado Alley, especially in March and April when severe weather focused on areas from the Midwest through the Tennessee Valley.
A much different story is likely to unfold this year.
A tornado is seen south of Dodge City, Kansas, moving north on May 24, 2016. (Photo by Brian Davidson/Getty Images)
"The second half of spring is jumping out to us," Pastelok warned about the upcoming tornado activity. Additionally, the springtime weather patterns will promote more severe weather in the classic Tornado Alley, which extends from Texas through Nebraska.
However, this does not mean that people outside of Tornado Alley should let their guard down.
"The severe weather threat can be more frequent in the Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio valleys later March into May, while the northern Plains and Northeast can have an increase in May," Pastelok explained.
AccuWeather is predicting 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes in the United States in 2024, above the historical average of 1,225, but fewer than the 1,423 twisters that were tallied in 2023.
Pastelok added that there could be an uptick in tornado activity in California. "Any strong system can produce a couple of tornadoes, mainly EF0 intensity, but an EF1 or EF2 cannot be ruled out," he said.
3 key factors that will set 2024 apart from 2023
Many factors go into creating AccuWeather's annual severe weather forecast, but there are three aspects of the forecast that will make 2024 stand out when compared to 2023.
"Quick warming of the Great Lakes combined with below-average snowpack in the Midwest could lead to an early start to severe weather season in this region," Pastelok explained. This is the opposite of last winter, which featured near-record snowfall in parts of the Midwest that kept a lid on severe weather over the region during the first part of the 2023 severe weather season.
Additionally, El Niño is currently driving weather patterns in North America, as opposed to the spring of 2023 when La Niña was present. While El Niño typically leads to below-average tornado and hail reports in the Plains, El Niño is expected to weaken, throughout the spring. This could allow for an uptick in activity in Tornado Alley from April into May.
The Gulf of Mexico will also play a crucial role in the severe weather season, with water temperatures currently near to slightly above historical averages.
"If the water is slower to warm in March, this could hold back the number of severe weather reports in March, especially compared to March 2023," Pastelok said.
The water in the Gulf of Mexico might heat up quickly during the middle and latter part of the spring, which is one of the reasons why AccuWeather is highlighting May as a critical month for tornadoes.
With the severe weather season still in its infancy, people should take steps now to prepare for when severe weather strikes. This includes having a plan in place, knowing where to go to be safe from a tornado, and having an emergency kit with essential items such as flashlights, a first aid kit, water and a battery powered radio.
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