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News / Winter Weather

Rainstorm to turn wintry in parts of New England

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Oct 13, 2020 5:18 PM EDT

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The official start of winter is more than two months away, but this weekend some parts of the interior Northeast might get a little taste of the upcoming season in the form of snow and unseasonable cold. A storm is forecast to form and rapidly strengthen along the leading edge of colder air along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and overnight into Saturday is when the snow could develop in places, though it will be a rain event for most people in the Northeast.

It is possible the storm will strengthen enough to be classified as a bomb cyclone, which occurs when the atmospheric pressure at the storm's center falls at least 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) in 24 hours. In layman's terms, this will be a potent storm with heavy precipitation and gusty winds regardless of whether the scientific criteria for bombogenesis are met or not.

Cold air is forecast to catch up with the back side of the rainstorm in such a way as to allow precipitation to change over to accumulating snow over the ridges and peaks of the Adirondacks of northern New York state and the Green and White mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire on Saturday.

"It is not totally out of the question that snowflakes may be seen even at some of the intermediate elevations in the Catskills, Berkshires and Poconos with this event," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Brian Wimer said. If a few snowflakes fly in the Poconos and Catskills, it would likely occur late Friday night.

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Prior to the potential for snow, the storm will begin to crank out drenching rain from North Carolina to New Jersey and southeastern New York state on Friday. Throughout Friday night, drenching rain and gusty winds will expand northward through eastern upstate New York and western and central New England. During Saturday morning, the stormy conditions will reach eastern New England.

The rain could pour down hard enough to lead to urban flooding, which could be made worse where leaves come down and block storm drains from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania through New England.

Even if the storm does not strengthen into a bomb cyclone, winds could become strong enough to break tree limbs and knock over poorly-rooted trees in New England. The winds will also knock a significant amount of bright fall foliage off the trees.

Motorists should expect delays Friday into Saturday from downpours that can create poor visibility and cause excess water on the roads. Where leaves have fallen onto secondary roads in wooded areas, conditions can be extra slick.

This dose of drenching rain will be especially beneficial in New England, where rainfall deficits in some locations have topped 10 inches since June 1. Much of New England, upstate New York and central and western Pennsylvania have been struggling with abnormally dry to severe drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The storm is likely to usher in a dramatic temperature swing. In New England, temperatures may be at their highest levels of the entire weekend during Friday night and could surge well into the 50s and 60s F, only to plummet 20 degrees or more from on Saturday.

It is during the latter part of this rainstorm when a quick change to accumulating snow is forecast to occur on Saturday over some of the interior mountains of the region.

"I love to see it," said AccuWeather Broadcast Meteorologist Brittany Boyer. "Some of the ski resorts - Stowe, Whiteface, Killington - are very likely looking at several inches of snow here," she added.

Precipitation rates during the storm will be heavy to intense so even if it snows for only a few hours at the end, that could be enough to bring a small accumulation at elevations starting around 2,500 feet and several inches of snow above 3,000 feet. Six to 12 inches are possible on the highest peaks and ridges in wooded or grassy areas.

"There is even a chance that snowflakes mixed with rain could dip to some low elevations in the Mohawk, upper Hudson and Connecticut river valleys on Saturday," Wimer said.

Even though a major snowstorm for populated areas is not projected in this case, the Northeast has had its share of winter weather in past Octobers. The earliest major snowstorm on record for the region occurred on Oct. 4, 1987, when over a foot of snow buried parts of New York state and New England.

Related:

Two-faced winter on tap for millions, AccuWeather forecast predicts
How to Prepare Your Home’s Furnace, Fireplace and Heating Systems for Winter
Coldest air so far this season to sink into north-central US

The storm will quickly exit the mid-Atlantic during Friday night and New England later Saturday. The burst of chilly air that accompanies it will also be quick to leave this weekend. Where the sun comes back out Saturday afternoon in coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic, and on Sunday in areas farther north, temperatures are likely to rebound significantly. However, there can be a frost or freeze in the normally cold spots during Saturday night as winds are forecast to drop off quickly.

Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the upper 30s over the highest elevations that get snow to near 60 around the Chesapeake Bay. Highs on Sunday are projected to be near 50 over the higher mountains in the Northeast to the upper 60s to near 70 around the Chesapeake Bay. Normal high temperatures for the middle of October range from the mid-50s across northern New England to near 70 in southeastern Virginia.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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