Big weather changes are on the way for the Midwest, Northeast
AccuWeather meteorologists say colder air will allow snow chances to increase across the Midwest and Northeast in the coming days.
Following one of the coldest Christmases in decades across parts of the eastern United States, a thaw began during the final days of 2022 in the Midwest and Northeast. The springlike spell of warmth has promoted record-challenging high temperatures during the first few days of 2023, but AccuWeather meteorologists say changes that were underway on Thursday will continue to evolve through this weekend. The chance for some snow will expand beyond the northern tier areas.
The change to more seasonable temperatures will be brought on by a small but fairly persistent southward dip in the jet stream. Ripples in the jet stream, associated with weak storm systems, will move along from the Midwest to the Northeast states and could trigger snow, a snow/rain mix or an icy mix across a fairly extensive area.
Even though temperatures will likely hover a few degrees Fahrenheit above average for early January, it will feel noticeably colder. The more seasonable air was already filtering across the Midwest as of midweek.
For example, the temperature peaked at 72 F in St. Louis on Tuesday. On Wednesday, temperatures were hovering about 30 degrees lower, in the 40s, on Wednesday afternoon with highs likely to remain in the 40s into early next week. The normal high is 41 for the Gateway to the West.
Farther to the east, highs in New York City ranged from the lower 50s to the mid-60s from Dec. 29 through Jan. 4., but a downward trend is coming. The high temperature reached 50 degrees on Thursday, before maximum temperatures in the 40s will be common from late this week to early next week, forecasters say. A high near 40 is average for the Big Apple in early January.
A push of cold air will sneak into part of southeastern Canada, upstate New York and northern New England through Friday, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
At first, the cold air pushed into the lower part of the atmosphere, and that led to freezing rain in a zone that includes Ottawa and Montreal, Canada, to near Plattsburgh, New York, during Wednesday night, Anderson explained.
As the layer of cold air deepens, a transition to snow will occur and expand southward to include much of western New York, central New England and coastal Maine into Friday. Accumulations will generally be light, but a few spots can pick up 2 or 3 inches of snow.
As the pool of chilly air lingers in the Midwest and spreads into more of the Northeast, snow showers will become common and shift from the Great Lakes region to the central Appalachians and much of New England on Friday.
As a couple of pieces of energy break off from the California bomb cyclone and travel eastward across the Rockies and emerge over the Great Plains, just enough moisture may be drawn into the colder air to set the stage for additional rounds of winter weather from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys to the mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
The exact timing and area coverage of the snow and wintry mix is not yet set in stone as the first of the disturbances may fall apart as it moves into drier air before extending across the Appalachians.
However, a zone of snow and snow/sleet/rain mix is likely to develop from parts of Missouri Saturday night to portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on Sunday. Enough snow may fall in some locations to make roads slushy and slippery.
All or mostly snow may fall near and just north of Interstate 70. Unless the storm shifts its track farther to the north, the zone from Chicago to Detroit is likely to avoid accumulating snow from the storm.
Since the second disturbance will have more moisture to work with, there is a better chance of some snow or a wintry mix to push across the central Appalachians and on toward part of the mid-Atlantic and New England regions from Sunday night to early Monday.
How much, if any, slushy accumulation develops on roads and sidewalks east of the Appalachians will depend on whether or not the weak storm is able to grab Atlantic moisture at the last minute and gain strength quickly enough.
The chance of slippery travel along part of the Interstate 95 zone is not high, but not zero for the Monday morning commute.
At this time, areas such as Washington, D.C., Baltimore and New York City stand a better chance at a period of wet snow or mixed rain and snow than cities farther to the north. However, that may change once the storm begins to push east of the Appalachians and reorganizes late Sunday night to Monday.
Potential for winter storm next week
AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists has been analyzing the potential for a large Atlantic coast storm during the period from Jan. 10-14 for weeks.
"As more energy from the Western states feeds eastward and provided a stronger dip in the jet stream forms inland from the Atlantic coast next week, a more substantial winter storm may evolve for the Northeast with areas of rain and heavy snow," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "The window for that is looking to be around Jan. 11 or 12 at this time."
A number of major East Coast cities have not yet received their first snowfall of the season. In New York City, the last time there was 0.1 of an inch of snow or greater was on Mar. 9, when 0.4 of an inch of snow fell.
Temperatures do not have to be extremely cold for snow to develop. Snow can fall and accumulate with temperatures near or just above the 32-degree mark. A mixture of snow and rain can easily occur with temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s.
Pastelok said that a further dip in temperatures is likely in the wake of that larger storm next week, even if the storm ends up moving offshore, meaning that most of the precipitation would bypass the Northeast.
"A cold high-pressure area will move in later next week, but it is not likely to be extreme, like the cold the Northeast and many other areas of the nation experienced around Christmastime," he said.
As that colder pattern evolves, there may be several days with highs in the 20s in the Appalachians and New England and the 30s elsewhere in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic.
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