Typhoon Lionrock
Typhoon Lionrock currently has maximum-sustained winds of 130 mph with gusts up to 160 mph. The typhoon is expected to move northward over the next couple of days as it gets closer to Japan. The rest of the basin does not have any other tropical cyclones to discuss at this time. The satellite image below shows where Lionrock is at the moment.
The forecast track of Lionrock is shown below.
Lionrock is expected to make landfall near or just to the north of Tokyo on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds will accompany landfall closest to the center of the typhoon. Rainfall will average 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts across eastern and central Honshu in Japan, which includes Tokyo. Winds upon landfall closest to the center will average around 100-130 mph with locally higher gusts. This is equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane. There will be a storm surge and it is expected to be 3-6 feet during landfall. All of this will lead to damage to infrastructure and a threat to life. Lionrock will weaken into a tropical storm rather quickly after landfall on Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will move westward bringing heavy rainfall by Wednesday and Wednesday night to northern North Korea and far northeastern China. This will also include far southeastern Russia. The graphic below shows where the impacts are expected and where the greatest risk will be.
In the long range, there are two additional areas to monitor later next week and next weekend. One will be centered around Taiwan and the far northern Philippines where a disturbance could evolve and strengthen into a tropical depression. The other area to watch will be to the north and northeast of the Mariana Islands where another disturbance could evolve into a tropical depression. At this time, we will go with a low chance for development for these two regions. The long-range graphic below shows these areas to watch.
