Plains, Midwest brace for days of severe storms as active weather system develops
As moisture returns and warmth builds beginning this weekend, daily rounds of severe thunderstorms are likely across the Plains, with risks for damaging winds, hail and tornadoes expands into the Midwest.
After severe weather rocked the central U.S. in the first days of April, a calm pattern is in place for a few days. But by the second weekend of the month, storms will be back.
A pattern that could bring daily rounds of severe weather to the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest will take shape this weekend and continue into next week; however, exactly how widespread and intense the storms become will become clearer in the coming days.
A vast area of dry air will limit thunderstorm activity across much of the eastern half to two-thirds of the nation for much of this week. Exceptions include the Florida Peninsula for most of the week and localized areas of the Southwest and Plains into midweek. Thunderstorms in these areas may be heavy and locally severe.
A storm forecast to move onshore in California and then progress inland over the West late this week will draw moisture northward from the Gulf into the Plains states.
As moisture increases, drenching downpours and thunderstorms will become more widespread.
While parts of the region need rain, too much may fall too quickly for the ground to absorb, leading to poor drainage flooding and rises on some streams.
Streams and rivers from Missouri to Michigan have continued to respond to rounds of heavy rain from late March into early April. As new showers and thunderstorms move in, water levels may rise again or reach new highs in parts of the region.
Pockets of heavy to locally severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the Plains from Wednesday to Friday.
The main threats these days will be for hail, brief strong wind gusts and torrential downpours.
Increasing moisture, building warmth and incoming jet stream energy from the West should spark widespread thunderstorms over the Plains starting on Saturday and continuing into early next week.
On most days during this stretch, all severe weather threats will include damaging winds, hail and tornadoes.
How quickly the severe weather threat shifts east will depend on the speed of the storm from the West.
For Saturday, AccuWeather meteorologists have outlined a zone from southwestern Nebraska to eastern New Mexico, including northwestern and central Texas, for potential severe thunderstorms.
On Sunday, the severe weather zone is expected to broaden and shift eastward. The threat may extend from central Texas to central and eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa.
By Monday, the risk of severe thunderstorms is projected to extend from central and northeastern Texas to southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northeastern Illinois.
Both the coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms may increase with each passing day. The pattern could evolve into an outbreak if it becomes apparent that hundreds of incidents could occur daily.
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