Is the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season over? El Niño suppressing late-season storm risk
The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season saw 10 named storms, and the only hurricane in October, breaking a 121-year-old record for latest first hurricane.
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno explains why the risk for direct tropical impacts in the U.S. is over for the season.
AccuWeather experts have declared that tropical activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is over, three weeks before the official end of the season on Nov. 30.
"While tropical storms can still develop this late in the season, the weather patterns we're seeing give us confidence that the United States will avoid additional direct tropical impacts this year. It's an unusually quiet conclusion to a season that defied expectations and broke a 121-year-old hurricane record,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
The season stood out for the lack of activity, with 10 named storms, the fewest since 2014, when there were only eight storms. It was also the first time since 1925 that there was only one hurricane in the entire season, with Hurricane Isaias making a destructive Category 2 landfall on the Florida Panhandle in October. It was also the latest first hurricane in 121 years.
A forecast that kept shrinking with El Niño influence
In March, AccuWeather’s hurricane forecast called for 11 to 16 named storms. However, as a rapidly strengthening El Niño took hold much earlier in the year than usual, the forecast dropped to eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes by mid-August, and was trimmed again in September.
“The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been anything but typical, and El Niño has played a significant role in limiting tropical activity across the Atlantic," DaSilva said.
El Niño increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms and can prohibit development altogether.
Arthur and Bertha cause flooding and erosion on Gulf Coasts
Wind and rain seen near West Port Arthur, Texas, on Sept. 1, 2026, after Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall. (Image: Tony Laubach/AccuWeather)
The season opened in mid-June when Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall near Matagorda Bay, Texas, and set off flooding across the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather estimated $4 to $6 billion in total damage and economic loss from Arthur.
Tropical Storm Bertha followed in July with two Gulf Coast landfalls, in Louisiana and then Texas, bringing flooding and beach erosion.
In late August and early September, Cristobal and Dolly stayed mostly at sea. Edouard then made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, and prompted flash flood emergencies in southeastern Texas, with nearly 20 inches of rain falling around Kountze.
A hurricane drought for the record books
2026 Atlantic hurricane season named storms.
Even as storms formed, none became hurricanes. In mid-September, Fay peaked at 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Category 1 strength.
The first record fell in September when the Atlantic went without a hurricane through Sept. 21, breaking a 112-year record. Gonzalo formed off Africa in late September, near the Cabo Verde Islands, and Hanna followed on Sept. 28 northeast of Bermuda. But neither became a hurricane.
Isaias: 2026 season’s one and only hurricane
Much of the most severe wind and surge damage from Hurricane Isaias was dealt to coastal towns west of the storm’s landfall.
The hurricane drought ended Oct. 8, when Isaias became the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season, breaking a 121-year record for the latest first hurricane.
The storm found a pocket of lower wind shear in the Gulf and strengthened quickly, peaking as a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph. Mandatory evacuations went into effect in Florida’s Okaloosa County, and Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, at 8:30 p.m. CDT Friday, Oct. 9, as a Category 2 hurricane.
A gust of 117 mph was recorded at Oriole Beach, storm surge reached 5.51 feet at Panama City Beach, and rainfall topped 8 inches in parts of the panhandle. Isaias then spread tornadoes into Georgia and the Carolinas. Isaias contributed to more than 20 tornadoes, and as many as eight people were killed by indirect storm impacts.
AccuWeather preliminarily estimated $16 to $20 billion in total damage and economic loss from Isaias.
Late-season activity
On Oct. 21, a former nor’easter gained tropical characteristics over the Gulf Stream and became Subtropical Storm Josephine, the 10th named storm of the season. It later brushed Atlantic Canada.
As recently as Nov. 3, AccuWeather meteorologists were watching for tropical or subtropical development between the Bahamas and Bermuda. However, the window for development has since closed.
Meanwhile in the Pacific, nonstop hurricane activity
People walk through a field of debris after Hurricane Lala in Naalehu, Hawaii, Monday, Aug. 17, 2026. The Category 1 hurricane brought heavy rain and strong winds to the island of Hawaii before moving away without making landfall, causing extensive damage to towns along the island's southern end. (Photo by Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)
The same El Niño that muzzled the Atlantic supercharged the eastern Pacific, which blew past seasonal hurricane records. Rachel sent rain and surf into Southern California, and Vance became the basin’s 11th major hurricane of the year.
As of Nov. 3, the central and eastern Pacific basins had produced 24 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. Hurricanes Lala, Lowell and Nolo brought flooding rain to Hawaii, while Polo and Simon affected Mexico and sent surges of tropical moisture into the southwestern United States.
The Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons officially end on Nov. 30.
Report a Typo
