Typhoon Choi-wan Heading Toward Hokkaido
As of Tuesday morning, EDT, Typhoon Choi-wan is located about 1,300 km (900 miles) to the northeast of Guam. Movement is to the west-northwest at 14 kph (9 mph). Maximum sustained winds are 110 kph (75 mph) with gusts to 140 kph (85 mph). There are no other tropical systems across the western Pacific.
The forecast does not have any significant changes from yesterday. There remains high confidence in the track as it moves to the north-northwest with an eventual landfall in far northern Hokkaido or the Kuril Islands just to the north. Thursday looks to be the time period with the greatest impacts, though by Wednesday evening and night, rain and wind will already be moving into the region.
Given that Choi-wan will be a minimal typhoon or tropical storm during the time of impact, we will likely see some wind damage across northern Hokkaido and the Kuril Islands; however, major damage is not expected. Minor to moderate structural damage and power outages are most likely. Rainfall will be significant across the same areas with 125-250 mm (5-10 inches) expected in northern Hokkaido.
In southern Hokkaido, including Sapporo, wind damage should be minor and there should only be an isolated risk for flooding. Impacts will diminish on Friday, though it will still be windy.
In the long range, another area of low pressure is expected to develop near or east of the Mariana Islands sometime around this weekend or early the following week. Initial indications are that this area will track to the west, so it would be something to monitor and could bring impacts to land. There are some signs that a second low will try to develop in the wake of the first. This is not included on the outlook map, but it is something we are monitoring. As a result, we will have to watch for continued tropical threats in the western Pacific through the middle of the month.
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