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Kalmaegi to renew flood threat in the Philippines into this weekend

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Nov 11, 2019 7:49 PM EDT

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A tropical low over the Philippine Sea strengthened into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi on Wednesday and now takes aim for the northern Philippines. This system is known as Ramon in the Philippines.

Just north and east of the country currently, Kalmaegi is expected to retain this strength as it curves westward bring periods of heavy rainfall to parts of the Philippines through the weekend.

Kalmaegi's is expected to make landfall on the island of Luzon on Monday, local time, as a strong tropical storm.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued moderate and extreme flooding warnings across the northern Philippines from near Tabaco City to Calamba on Friday.

Into the weekend, the heaviest rains will be north of Manilla.

Rainfall totals can reach 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) across parts of northern Luzon.

"Following the recent heavy rains, especially in northern and eastern Luzon, the additional rainfall from Kalmaegi can lead to prolonged river flooding along with new flash flooding and mudslides," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 500 mm (20 inches) is possible along the north- and east-facing slopes in these areas.

The above satellite image shows both Kalmaegi and Fengshen churning in the Western Pacific Ocean on Friday afternoon (Photo/NASA).

The slow-moving nature of the storm will likely prolong the risk of flooding across the region through early next week.

While flooding rainfall appears to be the main threat, there can be isolated wind damage near its center, particularly near the point of landfall.

Winds will likely be greatest during the day on Sunday, and may reach sustained speeds up to 100 km/h (62 mph).

Related:

AccuWeather Tropical Headquarters
Philippines Weather Homepage
AccuWeather's 2019-2020 Asia winter forecast
Developing medicane threatens Italy to western Greece with another round of flooding rainfall

Kalmaegi's track over the mountainous terrain is likely to force the storm to lose some wind strength. The storm is ultimately expected to weaken and diminish over the East China Sea early next week.

This is not the only tropical feature brewing in the West Pacific Ocean basin. An area of low pressure that was east of the Mariana Islands on Tuesday strengthened throughout the week, becoming Very Strong Typhoon Fengshen on Friday.

On Friday evening, Fengshen was producing winds equivalent to a category three hurricane in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean basins.

Fengshen moved north from the northernmost Mariana Islands by this weekend, ending the threat for flooding rainfall and damaging winds.

As of Saturday, the typhoon has turned to the northeast and is beginning to gradually weaken.

Fengshen weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday as it was picked up by a non-tropical storm system moving across the Pacific Ocean, putting the feature on an easterly track. Such a track makes any impact to eastern Asia unlikely.

This satellite image from Sunday shows Kalmaegi near the Philippines, Fengshen in the top right and a budding tropical system in the bottom right. (Photo/RAMMB)

Kalmaegi and Fengshen do not look to be the end of tropical development in the western Pacific Ocean. Early next week, meteorologists are concerned that another tropical system may develop east of the Philippines.

"Initial indications are that this could be a strong system, bringing another flooding threat and possibly a more significant wind impact to the Philippines," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Download the free AccuWeather app to get the latest updates on the tropics and how it might affect your area.

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