Tropical downpours to drench Gulf Coast, I-10 corridor into this weekend
A potential tropical rainstorm will be watched closely for evolution to a tropical depression as it wanders westward over the northern Gulf into this weekend.
Thunderstorms rumbled through parts of the Southeast from July 21-22 with flooding rain and vivid lightning.
A broad area of drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will shift from the southern Atlantic coast to the northern Gulf as the week progresses. AccuWeather meteorologists will focus on this zone for potential tropical development over the next several days.
"We tend to watch the tail end of fronts and storms in the middle part of the atmosphere for conjuring up tropical development close to the United States during the middle of the summer," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "We have both currently hanging out near the southeast U.S. coast and in nearby waters offshore."
On Tuesday morning, thunderstorms extended along the front from off the Carolina coast to the northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, a swirl of clouds, showers and thunderstorms was visible off the east coast of Florida, extending to the northern Bahamas.
This image, captured on Wednesday afternoon, July 23, 2025, shows a loose and poorly organized swirl of clouds over the north-central Gulf. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
The two zones have generally consolidated into one closely packed swirl over the north-central Gulf as of Wednesday afternoon.
If this swirl organizes further and intensifies, it could evolve into a tropical depression over the next few days, DaSilva added. The next tropical storm that develops will be named Dexter.
Even without robust tropical development, impacts will spread westward along the Gulf Coast states, especially along the Interstate 10 corridor.
"The first and most widespread impact will be torrential downpours that can lead to flash flooding as the thunderstorms and showers spread westward and persist along the upper Gulf Coast," AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Geoff Cornish said. "Rough surf and rip currents may also become a problem for swimmers around the thunderstorms and especially if some tropical development occurs."
Where downpours persist along the upper Gulf Coast, 3-6 inches of rain could fall, much of it in several hours.
Other hazards, in addition to flash flooding for motorists and dangerous surf for swimmers, will be lightning strikes and the potential for a couple of tornadoes and waterspouts. For small craft, sudden squalls can create rough seas and strong wind gusts.
"If the bulk of the storm remains offshore and over the open waters of the Gulf, there will be a better chance of development than a low risk," DaSilva said. "Otherwise, if only a weak circulation hovers near the northern Gulf coast as it drifts westward into the weekend, the development risk will remain low."
GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
•Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
There is a significant chance that some thunderstorms will reach eastern and perhaps Central Texas by the end of the week. Much of Texas will be sweltering in a midsummer heat wave this week. Some moisture from the elongated storm may be pulled northward over the Mississippi Valley and may reach the Ohio Valley, enhancing downpours and increasing the risk of flash flooding in some areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will impact portions of the Leeward and Windward islands, but no tropical development is foreseen with this tropical wave of low pressure.
A vast zone of dry air, dust and wind shear are likely to continue to hinder tropical development from the Caribbean to the central and southwestern Atlantic over the next week or two at least. There is a low chance that another tropical wave may organize over the south-central Atlantic, despite the dry air.
"Once we get into August, if these areas of dry air, dust and wind shear shrink, we will have to focus more on tropical waves emerging from Africa for tropical development," DaSilva said.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
