The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet and tropical development looks unlikely through the next 7 days
Careful analysis of the Atlantic basin reveals no organized tropical features at this time. We are monitoring several features across the basin. We are tracking three tropical waves across the basin. They are along 29 north, along 54 north and along 94 north. The waves are mostly south of 20 north. A strong pressure gradient is helping to create a strong trade wind flow between 50 west and 95 west. This is helping the tropical waves to move westerly at 20-25 knots west of 50 west.
We are also monitoring two other features. An upper-level low is located over the Gulf of Mexico and a strong tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa later today or tomorrow. The upper-level low is rather weak and has no surface feature. This upper-level low is forecast to move over South Texas, then northeastern Mexico within the next couple of days. There is not enough time for a surface feature to spin up under this upper-level low.
The strong tropical wave that is to move off the coast of Africa within the next 24 hours has a minefield of hostile environmental conditions ahead of it. However, computer models seem to maintain some low to midlevel feature with the tropical wave. So if these environmental conditions were to relax, tropical development might become more favorable.
Environmental conditions have not changed much across the Atlantic basin through the last few days, and the overall pattern should not change much this week. Areas of strong vertical wind shear, extensive areas of dry air and dust and anomalously strong surface pressure covering much of the North Atlantic will prevent tropical development this week and probably through the next seven days.
