Monitoring continues in the Atlantic Ocean for tropical development this week
Following Hurricane Dorian's extended and catastrophic journey across the Atlantic, the basin remained active throughout September. However, after Lorenzo's demise this past week, the Atlantic Ocean is void of organized tropical disturbances for the first time in weeks.
However, meteorologists continue to monitor several areas for tropical development this week.
"A storm may form in the middle layer of the atmosphere a few hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday or Wednesday," according to Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert.
The system may develop some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm system during the middle or latter part of the week.
If that storm were to merge quickly with another system west of Bermuda, tropical development would be unlikely. However, if the two storms remain separate, there is a greater chance for the midocean storm to become tropical in nature.
Either way, it appears the midocean storm is likely to remain east of the United States.
A greater threat to the United States would be the area of concern to the west of Bermuda.
A storm moving through this region will have the potential to cause rough surf and rip currents at the mid-Atlantic and New England beaches for several days, even if it does not develop tropical characteristics.
Coastal flooding, especially at times of high tide, could be a concern.
The system may also help to steer some wet weather back into parts of the Northeast during midweek.
Those along the coast, as well as in Atlantic Canada, should monitor the evolution of this system in the coming days.
This image, taken on Monday, Oct. 7, 2019, shows much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. There are no organized tropical systems at this time, but that may change as the week progresses. (NOAA/GOES-East)
Meanwhile, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms was centered near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Strong vertical wind shear is in place over the region and to continue this week, which should prevent rapid development in this area. However, some of this energy may move northeastward and could help to fuel the system just off the Atlantic coast late this week.
The only impacts from parts of Central America to the Florida Peninsula will be some enhanced showers and thunderstorms over the next few days.
The pattern has the potential to deliver a few inches of rain to some locations over the Florida Peninsula, which will help some communities that have below-normal precipitation.
There is some concern for development over the western Caribbean this weekend to early next week. That area will be watched closely.
Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, disturbances continue to move off the coast of Africa, although the Cabo Verde season is winding down. Meteorologists refer to tropical systems that spin up after emerging into the eastern Atlantic from Africa as Cabo Verde storms, and the season for this type of system generally extends from early August into early October.
"There is no indication of any quick development with any of these tropical waves in the short term, but they will continue to be watched as they drift westward over the next couple of weeks," Kottlowski said.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
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