Behind the scenes of hurricane forecasting preparations, problems and ‘success’

With Hurricane Dorian bearing down on the United States Southeast coast, AccuWeather meteorologists shifted into overdrive to work on examining information, offering accurate forecasts and constantly analyzing ever-changing Dorian data.

So what do meteorologists worry about when it comes to hurricanes? What motivates them when it comes to making predictions that can impact millions of people – and save lives?

We asked five AccuWeather meteorologists working on Hurricane Dorian coverage to discuss everything that goes into hurricane forecasting.

What challenges exist with forecasting hurricanes?

Max Vido, meteorologist: “Small changes in a forecast track can bring significantly different impacts and damage to a given location. It’s always a challenge communicating the breadth of potential impacts for a given location several days out, knowing that the exact track of the tropical system will likely change.”

Alan Reppert, process improvement and technical innovation manager/senior meteorologist: “I think my biggest fear is how the forecast can go wrong and what might happen if it does go wrong. If a storm is forecast to go somewhere and goes somewhere else and brings catastrophic effects to some area we didn’t expect, that is what bothers me and keeps me up at night. This to me is my biggest thing with hurricane forecasting.”

What message do you hope to convey to people when a hurricane is headed their way?

Dan Pydynowski, forecasting shift supervisor/senior meteorologist: “You cannot just look at the hurricane’s center line; the cone or window of movement is there for a reason and impacts can extend hundreds of miles away from the center. Often, away from the immediate coast, the biggest threat is not surge or wind, but flooding rainfall. People get very caught up in the exact line and landfall point, and while there is a tremendous difference between being in the eyewall or not, impacts of heavy rain and damaging winds still will extend well away and inland from the center of a powerful storm. With a weaker and disorganized tropical storm, then the center line is even less important as the main threat usually ends up being flooding rainfall.”

What can be learned from past hurricanes and hurricane forecasts?

Marshall Moss, vice president, forecasting and graphic operations: “Hurricane Katrina was certainly one where we had a debate about whether to say that ‘50% to 70% of New Orleans would be under water for days or weeks.’ That was a pretty heated debate. We’re a consensus forecasting center – it’s not Marshall Weather or Dan Weather or anybody else. But consensus is not a democracy – it’s not where everybody votes and we go with whichever one wins.

“We have subject matter experts who make the decision, but they make it based on listening to everybody’s input. That one in particular was a very, very heated debate because you have to have a level of confidence to go out and make the forecast that we did: ‘50% to 70% of the city would be under water for days or weeks.’ We said that on national news outlets and in our forecasts and if you’re wrong on that, you take a big hit.

“On the other hand, if we believe it and do not share the information, we have not helped people. Ultimately, our role is to improve people’s lives, to help them make the best decisions for themselves, their families, their assets and their businesses and not sharing information like that when we believe it would go against that philosophy.”

[Note: AccuWeather was cited by Congress for our Hurricane Katrina forecasts.]

Dan Kottlowski, expert senior meteorologist: “I remember Hurricane Belle in 1976 came up the East Coast during one of my first weeks at AccuWeather. Back then, we did not have radar, we did not have satellites; we were basically basing it on surface data and just maps. We were plotting up maps to see where this hurricane was going and looking at surface observations along the coast. You learn to use those things and I still use those today. I’ve never lost that – watching the barometric pressures fall and understanding how the wind is backing or varying with respect to the coast, and you know that that’s where the hurricane is going.

“People say ‘the good old days’ – I say it was the bad old days. Because we didn’t have enough information. Now we have so much information to use to make decisions better now than you ever have before. And you have a much better, much more educated staff.”

How do meteorologists handle being right when that means their hurricane prediction came true and the storm brought damage and destruction?

Moss: “The point of the win is the people who heard our messages and made the right decisions because of them. What matters is how many lives we saved and how many people we helped. That’s what drives me every day and that’s where my passion comes from; helping people, and that is what meteorologists are in the business for.”

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