Tropical Depression 6 in Atlantic just one of many areas to watch
After a storm system soaks Florida this weekend, it could potentially strengthen into a named storm over the Gulf of Mexico.
As the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season steams toward its climatological peak next month, AccuWeather experts are closely monitoring several areas for development across the tropical basin this week including one over the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center declared one of the systems Tropical Depression Six Saturday afternoon.
The threat of development in the Gulf of Mexico is among a handful of areas in the tropical basin stretching all the way to the western coast of Africa, where a tropical depression or storm could form over the next several days. Another area in the open Atlantic has even been recently upgraded to a 'high' risk for development, according to AccuWeather's team of tropical forecasters.
The very next tropical storm name on the list for the 2023 season is Emily.
The expected uptick in activity in the basin comes on the heels of a prolonged lull in activity dating back nearly a month. The lull is amid a busy period in the Eastern Pacific, which has already hosted three named storms in recent days. Among the trio is Hilary, which will take a rare track toward Southern California into early week, bringing a risk for significant flooding.
Tropical wave to bring downpours to Florida, Texas
While not yet representing the highest chance of tropical development in the basin over the next week, an area of tropical downpours that will stretch from Florida to Texas this week could turn out to be the most impactful for parts of the southeastern and south-central United States, say AccuWeather forecasters.
That area of downpours, known as a "tropical wave," will move from the Bahamas and across the Florida Peninsula through Sunday, leading to some heat and drought relief in some areas but raising the risk for flooding inland and rip currents along the coast.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, a small area near the western coast of Florida was experiencing 'moderate' to 'severe' drought conditions. Additionally, cities such as Miami and Tampa have been running 2 to 4 degrees above historical average rainfall for much of July and August thus far.
The risk for tropical development will come when the atmospheric circulation associated with the downpours arrives in the Gulf of Mexico early this week before bringing rain to Texas by midweek.
"We continue to forecast a risk for tropical development across the western Gulf of Mexico early [this] week, as a disturbance tracks westward across the area," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. "This system will not have much time to develop before it likely moves into Texas, although it will be moving across very warm water which can aid in rapid development."
Provided the system does not quickly develop into a tropical depression or storm at the last minute upon nearing the South Texas coast, it will have the effect of a tropical rainstorm as it pushes westward toward the lower Rio Grande Valley and the Big Bend area of Texas later this week.
Regardless of whether it develops or not, the rain expected to move into Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday will bring a thorough soaking to some locations, but perhaps at the expense of localized flooding. However, for many in the region, it may seem like a refreshing relief following nearly a full summer of extreme heat and dryness.
For some, it could prove to be the most substantial rainfall in months, as the latest Drought Monitor also shows various levels of drought conditions. In Houston, there hasn't been a measurable rain event in well over a month, since July 6, while the high temperature hasn't been below 100 degrees on a calendar day since July 30 at Intercontinental Airport.
The expansion and shifting of the long-standing heat dome, which has scorched the southern Plains since early July, off to the north toward the Midwestern U.S. this week, will be partially responsible for allowing the tropical moisture to reach into the Lone Star State.
A high risk of a tropical storm forming in the open Atlantic
The areas at greatest risk for tropical storm formation are actually far away from any land, in the open Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde islands.
Following Tropical Depression Six and the potential for the system to become a tropical storm, additional tropical development could occur at any time over the coming days as areas of showers and thunderstorms drift to the west and northwest over abnormally warm waters, forecasters say.
The next name on the Atlantic list is Emily, followed by Franklin, Gert and Harold. However, it is hard to predict which area of disturbed weather can take on which name, as forecasters are watching several other areas of interest.
"The farther east disturbance will remain over the open waters of the eastern and central Atlantic for several days with no impacts to land," said Douty.
Tropical Depression Six may get close enough to the northeastern islands of the Caribbean to bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week.
Several more areas to keep an eye on
AccuWeather forecasters are also watching other areas in the central Atlantic, stretching from near the Lesser Antilles to the coast of western Africa. In fact, one of the areas of showers and storms that may eventually develop into a named tropical system hasn't even emerged yet from the African continent.
An area extending across the Caribbean Sea has been designated as one large 'medium' risk area for development into early week.
Additionally, a new cluster of thunderstorms emerging from Western Africa could be of note to meteorologists later in the month.
"There will be another low chance for development near the Cabo Verde Islands beginning around the middle of the week as another tropical wave emerges off the coast of Africa," said Douty.
The prospects of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic basin come right on the schedule, as the tropical system typically heats up from late August into September and October. The climatological peak of the season is on Sept. 10 while the season overall runs until the end of November.
Peak Timing / Frequency of Hurricane Season
AccuWeather continues to expect an above-average hurricane season for the basin, with a forecast of 13 to 17 named storms and four to eight hurricanes, compared to the historical averages of 14 and seven, respectively. So far, there have been four named storms, including one hurricane (Don).
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