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Heat dome to dominate in central US, challenging numerous records

Some of the hottest weather of the season is ahead for the Plains and Midwest, as the nation's heartland gets a taste of the record-shattering temperatures that have been scorching the Southwest most of the summer.

By Bill Deger, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Aug 17, 2023 12:12 PM EDT | Updated Aug 21, 2023 6:14 AM EDT

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Temperatures will swell across the central United States with AccuWeather RealFeel Temperatures over 110 degrees in some areas.

A long-lasting heat dome, which has been scorching the southern United States for weeks, will expand across more of the central part of the country into the new week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

The expansion of the dome will bring some of the hottest weather of the season to parts of the nation's midsection. Afternoon temperatures in many cities through Tuesday will challenge long-standing records.

Even though dry weather will accompany the core of the hot weather, threatening to worsen drought conditions, rounds of thunderstorms will continue to be a concern on the edge of the heat from the Great Lakes to the East this week. Some of those storms could produce gusty winds and downpours.

A period of midsummer heat in late August

Since early July, a long-lasting area of high pressure has been roasting a large portion of the South and southwestern U.S. This heat dome has resulted in some eye-popping temperatures this summer.

Across most of central and southern Texas, there have been three to five dozen days with temperatures above the century mark so far this year, including a run in Houston that dates back to July 30. While the heat will persist there, millions more will be sizzling this week, AccuWeather forecasters say.

"A noteworthy shift in the weather pattern is in store across the U.S. into [this] week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "The heat dome that has been anchored across southern and western parts of the country is expected to shift north and east."

Across portions of the Plains and Midwest, where the hotter weather arrived in earnest late weekend, it has been a relatively mild summer, compared to historical averages.

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"Some of the highest temperatures of the summer are expected to occur across portions of the central Plains and Midwest," added Buckingham.

In the Plains, this means triple-digit heat over multiple days, reaching or exceeding the highest readings of the summer thus far in cities such as Lincoln, Nebraska, where the highest temperature so far this summer was 102 until Saturday's high of 104; Omaha, which also has a season-high thus far of 102; and Tulsa (105).

In Des Moines and Chicago, temperatures have reached into the 90s on only a handful of days, but temperatures in those cities are forecast by AccuWeather to regularly get there over several days this week.

Of course, the temperature doesn't tell the whole story. Accompanying the heat will be an increase in humidity, which combined with bright sunshine and light winds will allow AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to rise to as much as 10-15 degrees over actual thermometer readings. That means that it could feel as hot as 115 degrees in the core of the heat over the Plains, a level considered "dangerous" on the RealFeel® scale.

Parched under the dome, stormy on the edges

The prolonged heat will take its toll not only on people and animals but crops as well, according to AccuWeather experts.

"Heat of this magnitude combined with an extended period of dry weather can be stressful to crops in the Plains," said Buckingham. "Both soybean and corn crops are especially susceptible to the heat and dry weather in August."

With little rain in the forecast over the next week from the Plains to the Midwest, the long-lasting drought in this region will only worsen, during what is a critical time for farmers.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday morning, severe to even exceptional drought conditions encompassed a large portion of the region, from northern Oklahoma to Wisconsin.

Conversely, thunderstorms will continue to rumble on an almost daily basis this week toward the edge of the heat dome from parts of the Great Lakes region into the East. Some of these storms could pack a punch, containing gusty winds and flooding downpours, a continuation of the recent weather pattern which has resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather.

Tropical downpours are also expected to occur "underneath" the heat dome, including areas from Florida into Texas, this week. For Houston, this would end a stretch of days without measurable rain since July 6.

"There is a chance the unfolding pattern may yield a tropical depression or storm over the western Gulf of Mexico, prior to moving inland over Texas by the middle of [this] week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski cautioned.

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