Wildfire risk to escalate across western US through end of July
Changing conditions in the West may lead to a surge in wildfires and fast-moving fires during the last days of July to early August.
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It has already been an active wildfire season over a large part of the western United States, but changing weather conditions this week could bring a significant uptick in fires, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
As of July 29, there have been nearly 40,000 wildfires across the U.S. so far this year, which have burned nearly 3 million acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.
Aside from some isolated thunderstorms in recent days, much of the West has had temperatures near to slightly below the historical average over the past week. That setup helped keep a lid on new lightning-induced wildfires.
Changes are coming to the West this week, however.
"A series of storms from the Pacific will rotate onshore West with limited moisture," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "These storms will cause strong winds to kick up at times and possibly could set off thunderstorms with little or no rain."
These two factors are a one-two punch in terms of wildfire activity.
Lightning strikes from thunderstorms could spark fires. In storms that bring little to no rain, there is no moisture to put out the emerging fires. Gusty winds that accompany the thunderstorm in the immediate vicinity then fan the flames and cause the fire to quickly spread.
On a larger scale, stiff breezes over vast areas then continue to fan the flames of existing fires and cause them to grow and move quickly. The more rugged the terrain, which the western U.S. has plenty of, the more difficult firefighting efforts become.
As the jet stream bulges northward over the interior West, Rockies and Plains, there will be a risk of heat building up in some areas where clouds and rain stay away. Higher temperatures raise the risk of wildfire ignition and rapid spread.
This week, moisture from the Gulf and Pacific may be drawn northward into the western United States. How extensive the moisture is will determine the extent of cloud cover and humidity levels.
More of both could help limit some wildfire potential, especially where drenching downpours occur instead of dry thunderstorms. As a consequence of the stormy scenario, there will be an increased risk of flash flooding.
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