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State of disaster declared in South Africa as AccuWeather forecasters warn of more rain

By Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Apr 19, 2022 12:46 PM EDT | Updated Apr 20, 2022 11:12 AM EDT

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Recovery continues with dozens still missing after a tragic flood claimed hundreds of lives in South Africa.

One week after disastrous flooding gripped South Africa, the death toll has soared past 400, and although there has been a break in the stormy pattern, AccuWeather forecasters are warning that more flooding rainfall is on the way for hardest-hit parts of the flood-ravaged country.

The waterlogged provinces of Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal, which includes the bustling port city of Durban, South Africa, have experienced immense rainfall over the past few weeks with nearly 2 feet of rain inundating the region. Landslides, mudslides and major river flooding wreaked havoc on the area, washing out roadways and burying communities. Even shipping containers that were once used for housing goods are now just pieces of twisted metal after floodwaters carried them miles downstream.

Shipping containers carried away and left in a jumbled pile by floods in Durban, South Africa, Wednesday, April 13, 2022. Flooding in South Africa's Durban area has taken over 400 lives and is a "catastrophe of enormous proportions," President Cyril Ramaphosa said Wednesday. (AP Photo/Str)

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a national state of disaster Monday evening, local time, almost a week after the Durban area was overwhelmed by flooding and mudslides that have killed a confirmed 443 people, according to News 24, a South African news source. About four dozen people remain unaccounted for, Ramaphosa said in an address to the nation, and more than 40,000 have been displaced from their homes. Nearly 4,000 homes have been completely destroyed and more than 8,300 have sustained at least some damage, the president stated.

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Ramaphosa had visited some of the communities in the KwaZulu-Natal province where he explained residents told him of heart-breaking stories about loved ones being swept away as their homes crumbled under the pressure of the floodwaters.

"This is a humanitarian disaster that calls for a massive and urgent relief effort," Ramaphosa said in his address to the nation.

Children walk on damaged road at an informal settlement in Durban, South Africa, Thursday, April 14, 2022. Heavy rains and flooding have killed at least 341 people in South Africa's eastern KwaZulu-Natal province, including the city of Durban, and more rainstorms are forecast in the coming days. (AP Photo/Str)

(AP Photo/Str)

The United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) said that over 600 schools have been impacted by the floods in KwaZulu-Natal and the South African Army has deployed 10,000 service members to assist with relief efforts across the province.

Many communities across this region of South Africa have dealt with a few extreme flooding events over the course of only a couple of years. One catastrophic event in particular was the Easter Floods of 2019 when Durban experienced torrential rainfall starting April 18, 2019. That incident resulted in at least 70 deaths. During the 2019 flooding event, almost 6.5 inches (165 mm) of rain fell on April 22, 2019, which set a record for most rain to fall in a 24-hour period in the city, a record previously established on Oct. 30, 1985.

In comparison, during the 24-hour period from April 11 to April 12, 2022, between 8 and 16 inches (200 and 400 mm) of rain fell, shattering the previous record set in 2019.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect high pressure to be in place throughout much of this week, promoting dry weather for any relief efforts. However, forecasters warn that there is more stormy weather to come late Friday into Saturday.

"A cold front is expected to bring the threat for additional rain, some heavy at times, and thunderstorms to central and eastern South Africa and Lesotho from Friday night through Sunday," Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls explained.

The storm may form on this front Saturday night or Sunday which can enhance rainfall in southeast South Africa, where the additional rainfall could exacerbate any rivers or waterlogged areas.

A general rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 inches (12 to 32 mm) is expected if the storm stays over land, but rain amounts could exceed 2 inches around Durban if the storm develops just off the coast. Although this is less rain than what led to deadly flooding around the port city last week, the ground is already extremely saturated and the additional rain can result in renewed flooding problems.

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