Series of storms may ease dry snap in Midwest, East
Updated May 4, 2021 5:41 PM EST
A summer preview gripped much of the Midwest and East in recent days as dry conditions and drought continued to take hold, but some changes are on the way in the coming days. AccuWeather meteorologists say the same weather pattern responsible for unleashing torrential rain in Texas over the weekend, tornadoes in parts of Mississippi Sunday night and widespread severe weather on Monday is likely to continue to cause trouble in the form of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain as it shifts eastward early this week. However, beneficial rain is also likely in parts of the Midwest and East.
As the week progresses, the jet stream will transition from a northward bulge to a southward dip in the eastern half of the nation. The transition will be gradual, but it has already begun and will have some consequences with the weather. As is often the case, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean will join in. The most widespread changes will be cloud cover and areas of rain.
This image, taken on Tuesday morning, May 4, 2021, shows a large swath of clouds over the eastern half of the nation. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
The same piece of energy in the jet stream that sparked violent thunderstorms late Sunday in Mississippi rolled northeastward into Monday night, but it changed character as it ran into a zone of cooler air, AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo said.
"That feature weakened while moving northeastward but still had enough punch to produce areas of rain and thunder as it pivoted to the East," LoBiondo explained.
Some of the storms were severe over the interior Southeast, where some warming took take place into Monday night. Some places in the Northeast, where the air did not have a chance to warm up, got a thorough soaking. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, managed to pick up about an inch of rain during the 24-hour period ending at daybreak Tuesday.
"As more jet stream energy pivots southeastward, more severe weather is anticipated over the lower part of the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys on Tuesday," LoBiondo said.
This additional energy will then spread out and produce more areas of rain Tuesday in parts of the Midwest and East and then finish up Wednesday along the Atlantic Seaboard.
In isolated areas, where too much rain pours down too fast, flash flooding can occur. This is most likely but not limited to urban locations.
The overall unsettled pattern may not culminate Wednesday.
"Additional pieces of energy, or disturbances, are likely to roll through the overall southward dip in the jet stream that is setting up in the Eastern states later this week and this weekend," LoBiondo said. "That can translate into pockets of showers and even a narrow swath of drenching rain somewhere."
One such disturbance could evolve into a full-fledged storm along the mid-Atlantic coast and may swing into New England Friday.
"The latest indications on that storm are not quite as bullish, but it certainly has to be watched for a period of rain and gusty winds in coastal areas of the Northeast to end the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said.
More disturbances are likely to follow across the Midwest and the East during the Mother's Day weekend. Rainfall will lead to disruptions in travel and outdoor activities.
The overall pattern will not bring drenching rain all day, everywhere in the Eastern states, but the overall pattern will be much less dry than it has been in recent weeks in some places.
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Through the first half this week, a general 0.50 to 1 inch of rain is forecast from the Ohio Valley to the Atlantic coast with lesser amounts around the Great Lakes and much heavier amounts over the South Central states.
One zone that could really use a thorough soaking is the swath from northern Iowa to the northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio to the southern parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. Some rain has reached this zone in the past week or so, but more is needed to have a meaningful impact on the abnormally dry conditions.
Since April 1, Chicago has only received 21% of its normal rainfall of 3.73 inches with Des Moines, Iowa, at 30% of normal precipitation.
Rainfall in multiple locations in the East were in the 40-60th percentile since early April as well including New York City; Roanoke and Richmond, Virginia; Millville, New Jersey; Charlotte, North Carolina; and State College, Pennsylvania.
Much of New England and upstate New York is still considered to be abnormally dry with some areas under the grips of a moderate drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor, but rainfall in the past week or two has helped in the short-term.
"We expect to see further improvement due to some rounds of rain in the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley and even into the East in the coming weeks," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, adding that some areas will be favored for beneficial rainfall. "It will be tougher to get rain to the interior Northeast and mid-Atlantic, compared to parts of the Ohio Valley."
Due to that trend in precipitation, Pastelok explained that the area around the Carolinas "could evolve into a trouble spot for dryness moving forward into early June."
The dry spell has been somewhat magnified by increasing evaporation rates that occur this time of the year due to lengthening daylight, strengthening sunshine and an overall upward temperature trend. Episodes of gusty winds have further allowed the topsoil to dry out.
A reasonable amount of dry weather allows farmers an easier task to get into the fields, plow and plant in some cases. However, once various crops are planted, a reasonable amount of rain is needed to get seeds to germinate and the crop to grow.
Spring is also often a time for brush fire risks, and that will be no exception this year due to the dry conditions. Fires could be a hazard at times in the coming weeks, especially where vegetation has not yet greened-up or has become dry due to lack of rainfall. Days with gusty winds can intensify the brush fire risk.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Weather Forecasts
Series of storms may ease dry snap in Midwest, East
Updated May 4, 2021 5:41 PM EST
A summer preview gripped much of the Midwest and East in recent days as dry conditions and drought continued to take hold, but some changes are on the way in the coming days. AccuWeather meteorologists say the same weather pattern responsible for unleashing torrential rain in Texas over the weekend, tornadoes in parts of Mississippi Sunday night and widespread severe weather on Monday is likely to continue to cause trouble in the form of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain as it shifts eastward early this week. However, beneficial rain is also likely in parts of the Midwest and East.
As the week progresses, the jet stream will transition from a northward bulge to a southward dip in the eastern half of the nation. The transition will be gradual, but it has already begun and will have some consequences with the weather. As is often the case, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean will join in. The most widespread changes will be cloud cover and areas of rain.
This image, taken on Tuesday morning, May 4, 2021, shows a large swath of clouds over the eastern half of the nation. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
The same piece of energy in the jet stream that sparked violent thunderstorms late Sunday in Mississippi rolled northeastward into Monday night, but it changed character as it ran into a zone of cooler air, AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo said.
"That feature weakened while moving northeastward but still had enough punch to produce areas of rain and thunder as it pivoted to the East," LoBiondo explained.
Some of the storms were severe over the interior Southeast, where some warming took take place into Monday night. Some places in the Northeast, where the air did not have a chance to warm up, got a thorough soaking. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, managed to pick up about an inch of rain during the 24-hour period ending at daybreak Tuesday.
"As more jet stream energy pivots southeastward, more severe weather is anticipated over the lower part of the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys on Tuesday," LoBiondo said.
This additional energy will then spread out and produce more areas of rain Tuesday in parts of the Midwest and East and then finish up Wednesday along the Atlantic Seaboard.
In isolated areas, where too much rain pours down too fast, flash flooding can occur. This is most likely but not limited to urban locations.
The overall unsettled pattern may not culminate Wednesday.
"Additional pieces of energy, or disturbances, are likely to roll through the overall southward dip in the jet stream that is setting up in the Eastern states later this week and this weekend," LoBiondo said. "That can translate into pockets of showers and even a narrow swath of drenching rain somewhere."
One such disturbance could evolve into a full-fledged storm along the mid-Atlantic coast and may swing into New England Friday.
"The latest indications on that storm are not quite as bullish, but it certainly has to be watched for a period of rain and gusty winds in coastal areas of the Northeast to end the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said.
More disturbances are likely to follow across the Midwest and the East during the Mother's Day weekend. Rainfall will lead to disruptions in travel and outdoor activities.
The overall pattern will not bring drenching rain all day, everywhere in the Eastern states, but the overall pattern will be much less dry than it has been in recent weeks in some places.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Through the first half this week, a general 0.50 to 1 inch of rain is forecast from the Ohio Valley to the Atlantic coast with lesser amounts around the Great Lakes and much heavier amounts over the South Central states.
One zone that could really use a thorough soaking is the swath from northern Iowa to the northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio to the southern parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. Some rain has reached this zone in the past week or so, but more is needed to have a meaningful impact on the abnormally dry conditions.
Since April 1, Chicago has only received 21% of its normal rainfall of 3.73 inches with Des Moines, Iowa, at 30% of normal precipitation.
Rainfall in multiple locations in the East were in the 40-60th percentile since early April as well including New York City; Roanoke and Richmond, Virginia; Millville, New Jersey; Charlotte, North Carolina; and State College, Pennsylvania.
Much of New England and upstate New York is still considered to be abnormally dry with some areas under the grips of a moderate drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor, but rainfall in the past week or two has helped in the short-term.
"We expect to see further improvement due to some rounds of rain in the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley and even into the East in the coming weeks," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, adding that some areas will be favored for beneficial rainfall. "It will be tougher to get rain to the interior Northeast and mid-Atlantic, compared to parts of the Ohio Valley."
Due to that trend in precipitation, Pastelok explained that the area around the Carolinas "could evolve into a trouble spot for dryness moving forward into early June."
The dry spell has been somewhat magnified by increasing evaporation rates that occur this time of the year due to lengthening daylight, strengthening sunshine and an overall upward temperature trend. Episodes of gusty winds have further allowed the topsoil to dry out.
A reasonable amount of dry weather allows farmers an easier task to get into the fields, plow and plant in some cases. However, once various crops are planted, a reasonable amount of rain is needed to get seeds to germinate and the crop to grow.
Spring is also often a time for brush fire risks, and that will be no exception this year due to the dry conditions. Fires could be a hazard at times in the coming weeks, especially where vegetation has not yet greened-up or has become dry due to lack of rainfall. Days with gusty winds can intensify the brush fire risk.
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Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo