Rain to drench mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, but struggle to reach all of New England
A long-awaited Southern storm is heading for part of the Northeast, but the storm is not likely to be the rain-producer it once was. It will bring enough rain to slow travel and disrupt outdoor plans.
Days of storms are leading to serious problems in the mid-Atlantic.
A storm that brought days of downpours and rounds of thunderstorms to the Southeast is heading northward, but not all areas of the Northeast will get soaked, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The southeastern United States storm produced rainfall ranging from 6 to 10 inches through Monday night, with some locations picking up between 10 and 14 inches of rain.
While that magnitude of rain is not heading to the Northeast, a thorough soaking is coming to many areas, and some locations may experience heavy enough downpours to trigger flooding.
Some heavy to locally severe thunderstorms can form over the lower part of the mid-Atlantic as well.
The slow-moving storm will weaken as it lifts northward, but it will tap into some Atlantic moisture for the balance of the week.
"In the Northeast states, the bulk of the rain is likely to fall on the mid-Atlantic region to parts of the central Appalachians into midweek," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
A general 1-2 inches of rain is forecast to fall from the coastal areas of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware, westward to the Allegheny Mountains in West Virginia and central Pennsylvania. A swath of 2-4 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 6 inches, is anticipated from eastern North Carolina to parts of West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle and south-central Pennsylvania.
While the rain will be gentle and soaking in many cases and ideal for drought relief, an inch per hour rain can fall in some locations, which can overwhelm storm drains and lead to urban-style flooding.
Where that rain falls on a more moist landscape, quick rises can occur on some small streams.
However, aside from the isolated flash flood risk and the inconvenience the rain will cause for travel and outdoor plans, the rain is generally needed due to months of rainfall deficit.
The rain will break up into more of a showery regime with embedded thunderstorms at midweek.
As the steady rain winds down in the mid-Atlantic, showers and spotty thunderstorms will ramp up over the Midwest and New England Wednesday and Thursday.
"Since humidity levels will be climbing as the storm progresses, it will not feel cool for too long, which is a bit different from most rainstorms thus far this spring," Rayno said.
As the storm slowly breaks up in place over the Northeast from Wednesday to Thursday, the sun can break through here and there. Where the sun is out for a time, it may feel rather warm and humid, compared to most days this spring.
Temperatures will trend upward for the remainder of the week from widespread highs in the 60s and mid-70s Tuesday to widespread 70s and 80s. The exception will be in eastern New England, where winds from the Atlantic and the chilly Labrador Current will cap highs in the 60s.
Very little rain is likely to reach northern New England from the storm, due to lingering dry air and the breakup of moisture over time. It is conceivable that parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine may stay completely free of rain through at least Thursday.
By Friday, there may be little evidence of the old Southern storm remaining. However, a storm that will snap a blistering northern Plains heat wave will advance from the Great Lakes to the Northeast from Friday to the weekend.
That advancing storm will bring a renewed uptick in showers and thunderstorms. There may even be pockets of severe weather. The best chance for widespread rainfall in New England will come from that late-week and weekend storm.
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