Rain to ease, but flooding problems to continue in southeast US
Some areas along the Atlantic Seaboard will face the biggest rain from the storm into midweek, while much of the Southeast should soon experience a drying trend as the week progresses.
Jeffrey Fuller recorded this video as intense flooding from Hurricane Helene tore through his home on Sept 27, driving his family into the attic for safety.
The stalled storm responsible for days of downpours in the southeastern United States is beginning to move away. However, AccuWeather meteorologists warn that the process will be slow, with more flooding downpours in some areas before dry air takes control.
Through Sunday, the heaviest rain was focused south and east of the southern Appalachians. That's likely to change over the next couple of days as the storm begins to lift northward from the Gulf.
Into Monday night, downpours, some accompanied by severe thunderstorms, will focus on portions of the Florida Peninsula and areas from Georgia to the Carolinas, Virginia, eastern Tennessee and West Virginia. These areas will be at greatest risk of dangerous flash urban and small stream flooding, regardless of prior drought conditions.
As of Monday morning, the storm has delivered just over 3 inches of rain to Augusta, Georgia, with close to 4.50 inches falling on Columbia, South Carolina. Some areas south and east of Augusta and just west of Columbia and parts of the Florida Panhandle have picked up 10-12 inches of rain in recent days. Savannah, Georgia, was approaching 7 inches of rain from the storm, while Panama City, Florida, picked up 6.24 inches.
The rain and flooding could be the most significant threat for some areas since Helene ravaged the southern Appalachians in late September 2024. Even a fraction of the rain, when compared to Helene, could be enough to trigger more flooding, due to damaged infrastructure.
Coastal cities along the Atlantic—like Miami and Charleston, South Carolina—that are already prone to high-tide flooding—especially around the full moon when tides are naturally higher—could face increased flood risk if heavy rain adds pressure to already taxed drainage systems.
There is some good news. As the massive storm picks up some forward speed and drifts more to the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms in much of the Southeast region will drop off substantially.
Exceptions include Virginia, West Virginia and part of North Carolina. Enough Atlantic moisture may continue to funnel into these states to bring more downpours and an ongoing risk of flash urban and small stream flooding. In much of these states, the rain was just getting started Monday.
Even with the drying trend that will ramp up during the middle days of the week from southwest to northeast, the amount of rain that has already fallen on some basins will result in river flooding.
Some rivers will have already crested on Monday, but others, such as in the Carolinas, may continue to rise for days as additional rain pours down.
The Congaree River in the South Carolina Midlands is forecast by National Weather Service hydrologists to reach moderate flood stage later this week. Meanwhile, the Pee Dee River in central North Carolina may approach moderate flood stage this weekend. Officials are urged to utilize the river gauge forecasts with caution. Not all of the upcoming rain may be factored into official government river gauge forecasts.
Farther west, some rivers in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana continued to rise at the start of the week in response to prior rainfall. Since these rivers are in flat terrain, they take many days to cycle during a heavy rain event and may continue to be above flood stage for the next couple of weeks.
As previously stated by AccuWeather, non-flooding rainfall in the Southeast will be beneficial in terms of drought relief.
Portions of Florida, for example, are experiencing some of the driest conditions in more than a decade. Drought during the early part of the growing season can substantially cut down crop yields or eliminate a crop altogether. In this case, any non-flooding drenching rain will be welcomed.
Once the storm departs, portions of Florida could go another seven to 10 days without substantial rainfall.
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