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Heat wave to bake Dakotas to Minnesota into midweek

Heat that will rival a hot weather pattern in the middle of July will bake the northern Plains for the first part of this week. Along with the heat will come a wildfire risk as winds kick up.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published May 11, 2025 1:34 PM EDT | Updated May 13, 2025 2:04 PM EDT

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With some significant heat expected to hit the south-central U.S. for the next couple of days, here’s how you can plan ahead using the AccuWeather RealFeel® when you download the free app.

Temperatures will soar well into the 90s Fahrenheit and may even approach 100 degrees through Tuesday over a thousand square miles of the northern Plains. AccuWeather meteorologists continue to advise that dangers will accompany the heat.

In some cases, temperatures will be 30-40 degrees above the historical average for May and shatter daily record highs by several degrees. Nearly every location will experience highs of 15-30 degrees above average for the date.

High temperatures within a few degrees of 100 are in store for Fargo and Bismarck, North Dakota, through Tuesday. Daily records dating back to the 1800s may be toppled.

Highs well into the 90s are forecast for much of South Dakota and western Minnesota. In Minneapolis, temperatures will peak within a few degrees of 90 into Wednesday.

In some cases, temperatures can eclipse the season-high mark from all of last year over the northern Plains.

Heat safety NWS

Practice heat safety, wherever you are!

The early season heat can be hard on some individuals, especially those partaking in physical labor or vigorous exercise. Experts urge people to drink plenty of fluids and avoid strenuous activity during the midday and afternoon hours, when the sun is the strongest and AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures are the highest. RealFeel® temperatures can be 10-20 degrees higher than official temperature, which is measured in the shade, about 6 feet off the ground and away from pavement.

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Despite the early-season heat, many streams, ponds and lakes are still icy cold at this point in the spring. Individuals taking a swim are at risk for cold water shock, muscle cramps and drowning.

Along with the extreme heat, gusty southwest winds will further bake the soil and vegetation.

Dry grasses and leaves leftover from the winter will become a prime source of fuel for any wildfire that ignites. Small fires can rapidly escalate into major blazes and threaten lives and property.

A storm pushing slowly onshore over the Northwest into early this week will eventually break the heat wave over the northern Plains. However, that could take until the middle of the week in some areas and the transition could be marked by violent thunderstorms.

The core of the heat over the Great Plains will settle southward on Wednesday and Thursday with enough of a strain on cooling demands to threaten the electrical grid in Texas.

More stories of interest:

Heat exhaustion vs. heatstroke: What you need to know
Heat wave help: Sure-fire ways to stay cool when temperatures rise
Damaging storms, tornado threat to intensify in Ohio, Tennessee Valleys

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

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