These U.S. cities are sinking, putting millions of people at risk
From New York to Houston, the ground is sinking—literally. A new study finds 28 major U.S. cities are subsiding, increasing the risk of flooding, foundation damage, and infrastructure failure.
The skyline of Manhattan. (Photo credit: Getty Images)
A new satellite analysis of land elevation in the 28 most populous U.S. cities reveals a hidden but growing problem: many of America’s major metro areas are sinking. This gradual sinking poses significant risks to infrastructure and amplifies flood hazards, especially in coastal urban areas.
“This is the first high-resolution, satellite-based measurement of land subsidence across the 28 most populous U.S. cities,” lead author Leonard Ohenhen of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory said. “It offers critical information for urban planning, infrastructure adaptation, and hazard preparedness.”
According to the study by Virginia Tech researchers published in the journal Nature Cities last week, every city analyzed has at least 20% of its land area subsiding, or slowly sinking. In 25 of the 28 cities, more than 65% of the land area is affected. The primary culprit? Groundwater extraction—pulling water from underground aquifers faster than nature can replace it.
Cities sinking the fastest
Texas is particularly at risk. Among all metro areas, Houston, Dallas and Fort Worth are the fastest sinking cities in the U.S., with large portions of land subsiding more than 5 millimeters per year—nearly 2 inches every decade. In Houston alone, 42% of the city is subsiding at that rate, with some areas exceeding 10 mm per year, one of the fastest rates in the country.
Severe flooding is seen next to the I-10 freeway just after Hurricane Beryl makes landfall on Monday, July 8, 2024 in Houston. (Photo credit: Raquel Natalicchio/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
Other cities with widespread and rapid subsidence include:
New York City, NY - 26% of the total population exposed to sinking ground.
Los Angeles, CA - Hotspots near Long Beach and industrial zones.
Las Vegas, NV - Noticeable subsidence in neighborhoods like Northgate, which is about 15 miles northwest of downtown Las Vegas.
Phoenix, AZ - Land compaction from water withdrawal in desert aquifers
While cities like Chicago, Illinois, and Columbus, Ohio, aren't sinking the fastest, they stand out in another way: over 90% of their land area is experiencing subsidence, even if it's slow. This widespread ground movement increases the long-term risk to buildings, roads, and buried infrastructure across large swaths of both metro areas.
In total, more than 33 million Americans are currently living on sinking ground in these 28 cities. Eight metro areas—including NYC, L.A., Houston, Phoenix and San Antonio—account for over 60% of that total.
Why subsidence matters
Land subsidence doesn’t spark headlines like hurricanes or wildfires, but its impacts can be just as serious—and far more silent. When the ground sinks, even by a few millimeters a year, it can quietly weaken foundations, crack roads, distort pipelines, and overwhelm stormwater systems. The damage often surfaces only when it’s too late.
“The latent nature of this risk means that infrastructure can be silently compromised over time, with damage only becoming evident when it is severe or potentially catastrophic,” said Dr. Manoochehr Shirzaei, co-author of the study and associate professor at Virginia Tech.
The main culprit is often hidden from view: excessive pumping of groundwater. In confined aquifers—layers of water trapped between rock or clay—drawing too much water reduces underground pressure, causing the land above to compact and sink. That process was most clearly observed in cities like San Diego, Houston and New York, where researchers found a strong link between groundwater decline and vertical land movement.
Compounded flood risks in New York City
New York City faces a unique challenge where land subsidence intersects with rising sea levels and increased storm activity. According to the New York City Panel on Climate Change, sea levels are projected to rise between 8 to 30 inches by the 2050s, and as much as 15 to 75 inches by the end of the century .
A study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society indicates that climate change is increasing the frequency of compound flooding events—where storm surge and heavy rainfall occur simultaneously—in New York City.
Rising sea levels and coastal flooding are a major threat to recovering some of the important artifacts left behind by Harriet Tubman.
How to stop the sinking
Experts say the solution isn’t simple—but it starts with managing how cities use groundwater.
Techniques like managed aquifer recharge (replenishing water underground), limiting extraction in high-risk zones, and updating construction codes to account for shifting ground can all help. In coastal cities, where subsidence amplifies sea-level rise, adaptation strategies like improved drainage, elevated infrastructure, and green flood zones may be necessary.
As climate change intensifies droughts, and water demand grows, scientists warn the problem could accelerate. However, with early warning systems, smarter planning, and better water management, some of the most serious risks may still be avoidable.
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