Northeast’s warm autumn: Is it going to continue?
The pattern of back-and-forth warm sieges and brief cool episodes is likely to continue in the Northeast through the middle of November.
There's no sign of winter setting in just yet in the Northeast as chilly spells will be brief and likely overshadowed by rebounding warmth through at least the middle of the month, AccuWeather long-range meteorologists say.
Temperatures have been running 1-6 degrees above the historical average since the official start of autumn in late September.
"For the next seven to 10 days at least, warm days will outnumber chilly ones, relative to the historical average," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said, "This means that when all the days are tallied up, temperatures will be several degrees above that historical average, which is slowly trending downward during November."
For example, in New York City, the average high temperature trends downward by 10 degrees Fahrenheit from the start of November to the end of the month—from 59 to 49 degrees. Over the northern tier, the drop over the month is even steeper.
A weakening push of cool air swept through the Northeast Friday into Friday night. Because the front associated with the cooler air was weakening, many locations escaped with little or no rain. Boston, Massachusetts, New York City and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania all recorded a trace of rain. Not enough rain fell to erase the abnormally dry to drought conditions.
The biggest drop north and west of the Appalachians occurred from Thursday to Friday and averaged 10-20 degrees. The temperature drop will be most notable along the Atlantic coast from Friday to Saturday. Highs in New York City will spiral downward from near 80 on Friday to the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday, which is about average.
"But after temperatures stabilize and enter a brief status quo period this weekend, a new and strong warming trend will commence next week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Temperatures in New York City, for example, will again reach the 70-degree mark on Election Day then rise well into the 70s by the middle of next week. Record highs may be challenged.
How a typhoon in the Pacific can send a chill across the Northeast
Looking farther ahead, tropical activity in the western Pacific may play a role in another dose of chilly air.
"The former Super Typhoon Kong-rey in the western Pacific has curved to the northeast near the Asia mainland coast after striking Taiwan," AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. "There is a known correlation that when typhoons curve rather than continue well inland and diminish, a dose of chilly air usually invades the area from the North Central to the Northeast states seven to 10 days later."
A radar loop shows Typhoon Kong-Rey making landfall on Taiwan on Oct. 31, 2024. (CMA)
While the northern part of the Northeast around the second weekend of November could experience significant cold for two to three days and possibly even some snow, AccuWeather's long-range team, led by Expert Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, said other activity in the tropics may negate some of the cold.
There is the possibility that some of the chilliest air of the season so far visits around the second weekend of the month.
This week marks 12 years since Hurricane Sandy made landfall, changing the Jersey Shore forever.
"Despite the potential for a more significant burst of cold air toward the second weekend of the month in the Great Lakes and Northeast, it too is likely to be brief with yet more warmth likely to brew from late in week two to week three of November," Pastelok stated.
Rainfall will tend to be sparse at least into the middle of November. Drought conditions will likely continue to expand and trend more severe in the Northeast.
The risk of wildfires will be ever-present but only limited during chilly and frosty mornings or when rain is active in the region.
Conditions might improve around mid-month only if brewing tropical activity in the Caribbean is able to expand northward across the eastern U.S. However, if such relief arrives, it could be at the price of flash flooding and travel delays.
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