Midwest, Northeast face unusually early wildfire concerns
An exceptionally dry pattern is allowing for drought conditions to develop and worsen at a fast rate, and AccuWeather forecasters say that the threat for dry thunderstorms could only exacerbate the problem.
An exceptionally dry and cooler weather pattern across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Midwest will produce temperatures more typical of early May through the first half of June.
The risk of wildfires will remain high across much of the mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians and Midwest regions into next week even as a cooler weather pattern produces temperatures more typical of the first half of May rather than early June, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
A southward dip in the jet stream developed over the past weekend and will stick around into the first part of next week in the northeastern quarter of the United States with only a brief interruption.
When the jet stream dips southward, the parts of the atmosphere beneath it cannot support excessive warmth. Either the air is dry and cool or widespread showers and thunderstorms erupt and produce rain that can cool the air.
Drought concerns are escalating
While parts of northern and eastern New England will be showery for a time in the pattern, showers or thunderstorms elsewhere in the Northeast and the Midwest will tend to be few and far between.
"A phenomenon not widely seen since the summer of 1988 may occur," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said.
Map of drought conditions in the contiguous U.S. in August 1988 (NOAA)
"The summer of 1988 brought its share of dry thunderstorms, or in other words, thunderstorms with little or no rain in parts of the Northeast and Midwest," Kines said. As harmless as the dry thunderstorms may seem, they can pose a hidden risk.
This past May was one of the driest months on record in some locations and, as a result, the current dry spell is evolving into a "flash drought." On a sunny, breezy day this time of the year, about 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of water can evaporate from the topsoil. Recently planted, shallow-root flowers and shrubs can wither during the day and seeds may fail to germinate. In addition, lawns become progressively more strawlike and enter dormancy.
The drought has not only raised concerns for those in the agriculture and lawn and garden industries, but it has also substantially increased the wildfire risk. Breezy conditions will further boost the risk by fanning any smoldering embers or small fires.
"The recent dryness set the stage for a critical fire danger for the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, which is extremely rare for the region," AccuWeather Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said. "This time of year, grass and brush are usually greening up, but they are already burnt out, creating potential fuel for blazes."
DePodwin noted that where dry thunderstorms occur, lightning strikes could trigger wildfires in a manner similar to that which plagues the western U.S. during the summer and early autumn. Gusty winds produced by the thunderstorms could quickly fan any fire that starts.
The dry grass and brush have pushed the threat sky-high this week as far west as portions of Michigan and Ohio, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
A wildfire that broke out in the Bass River State Forest in New Jersey last week was contained before it could do significant damage to homes. However, the blaze torched well over 5,000 acres, according to WPVI-TV in Philadelphia. There were no fatalities due to the fire.
Experts say people should use caution when working with power equipment and any open flames generated by the use of barbecue grills and campfires. In extremely dry conditions, such as the current situation, the simple action of tossing a burning cigarette along the highway could lead to a rapidly spreading brush fire.
Varying amounts of smoke in the sky from Canadian wildfires hundreds of miles to the north will dim and block the sun at times. In some cases, where the smoke reaches the ground level, hazy conditions will be an indication of poor and potentially dangerous air quality for some individuals.
Cool air accompanying the dry conditions
The summer of 1988 was well known for its blistering heat and drought over much of the interior U.S. However, during June of that year, there were also bouts of cool air by day and chilly nights in the Northeast as well, similar to what has been going on since May of this year.
The coolest conditions will reside over the interior Northeast into next week, but temperatures will fluctuate more along the mid-Atlantic coast.
For example, temperatures in New York City will be on the upswing into Thursday with highs in the mid-70s Fahrenheit forecast. A new wave of cool air will knock highs back to near 70 on Friday, only to trend up again this weekend, with a high near 80 predicted for Sunday. High temperatures will shift back into the low to middle 70s early next week. The historical average high for New York City is in the upper 70s during this time of year.
Persistent low humidity will allow temperatures to dip at night when the sky is clear with widespread early morning readings in the 40s to the low 50s over the interior Northeast.
In Chicago, high temperatures each day will be in the mid-70s through Thursday before peaking near 80 Friday and Saturday. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the 60s in the wake of a strong cool front.
On days when the smoke is extra thick, high temperatures may be suppressed by several degrees.
Will it stay dry and cool all summer?
AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists expects shower and thunderstorm activity that has been riddling portions of the Plains to expand into the Midwest early next week. The trend should continue farther east toward the middle and latter part of June in portions of the Northeast as the jet stream retreats northward.
The sporadic nature of the shower and thunderstorms should chip away at the drought, but it may take some time to resolve, and some areas may still be in need of rain well after the new pattern begins.
Temperatures and humidity levels more typical of June will accompany the change in the coming weeks.
Following the uptick in thunderstorm activity into July, hot and dry conditions will build during August and into early September. That will lead to a potential drought resurgence in the Northeast and perhaps parts of the Midwest, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok stated during an interview last week.
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