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Major pattern change underway across Turkey, Middle East

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jan 15, 2021 7:42 PM EDT

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A ski guide in Girdwood, Alaska, captured this video of an avalanche on Jan. 10, exclaiming, “That’s a big one!”

After a period of relatively mild and tranquil weather across Turkey and the Middle East, rain, snow, wind and lower temperatures have returned to the region this week.

As the weather pattern began to change and become more unsettled this week, a couple of storm systems moved into the region bringing rounds of rain, wind and significantly lower temperatures that produced snow in some areas.

The first storm in the series arrived on Tuesday and Wednesday, spreading areas of rain and high-elevation snow across Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and northern Iraq.

Istanbul received rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday with some heavier downpours in the surrounding area. After a warm day on Tuesday, daytime temperatures fell by 11 degrees Celsius (19 degrees Fahrenheit) on Thursday with a high only around 5 or 7 C (lower 40s F). Even chillier air will follow into the weekend when temperatures may fail to reach 5 C (41 F) on several days.

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An even more significant cooldown is expected in Ankara. After a high around 17 C (62 F) on Tuesday, temperatures may be held below the freezing mark by the weekend. As temperatures fell on Wednesday afternoon, rain mixed with and changed over to a period of snow before ending, but little or no accumulation occurred. 

While precipitation started as rain late on Wednesday and Wednesday night across cities in northeastern Turkey such as Erzincan and Erzurum, rain is expected to transition to snow with a light accumulation possible through the end of the week. 

As this cooler air continued to invade, places that originally had rain with the first storm during the middle of the week switched to snow by Friday. In some areas, enough snow had fallen to cause travel disruptions.

Highways in the Republic of Armenia were closed due to the winter weather on Friday, announced the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Roads were also closed by officials in Georgia due to avalanche danger, stranding some drivers on the Russian side of the country's northern border.

The airport in Krasnodar, Russia, was closed for a period on Friday morning, local time, as crews worked to clear the runways from snow that has fallen overnight.

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AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said, “We are tracking another storm to move across Turkey late on Friday and over the weekend that may bring accumulating snow to western and central portions of the country.” 

This late-week storm could bring a round of snow to Ankara, Eskisehir and Bursa. Temperatures in Istanbul may still be too mild for accumulating snow, but some snow could mix with rain showers over the weekend depending on the final track of the storm.

As this storm tracks eastward, it is expected to bring another round of snow to much of northeastern Turkey while showers can impact the Mediterranean and southeastern Anatolia. 

Not only will these storms bring impacts to Turkey, but they will also provide rounds of showers and gusty winds across Syria, Lebanon, Jerusalem, Jordan and northern Iraq.

The heaviest rain is likely to fall along the Mediterranean coast while lighter and more scattered showers occur inland. 

The recent warmth will also come to an end across these areas as temperatures fall back closer to normal. 

Since the start of the year, daytime high temperatures have averaged 3-6 degrees Celsius (about 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal across a large portion of Turkey and the Middle East. During this time, there has been little to no rainfall reported across nearly all of eastern Turkey and into Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jerusalem. 

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Major pattern change underway across Turkey, Middle East
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