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News / Weather Forecasts

Extreme heat to reach a scorching peak in central US

By Andrew Johnson-Levine, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jul 19, 2022 11:00 AM EDT | Updated Jul 19, 2022 1:15 PM EDT

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Intense heat has been no stranger to those who live in the central and southern United States as of late. Millions of Americans have endured grueling stretches of days with high temperatures flirting with or climbing into the triple-digits in the middle of the nation. AccuWeather forecasters expect little relief to arrive across the central and southern Plains this week, and temperatures instead are expected to soar to the most scorching levels yet Tuesday.

In areas from Kansas to Texas, the high heat is far from new. In Oklahoma City, the mercury has reached 100 F on nine separate days so far this month through July 18, including a high of 105 degrees -- just one degree shy of the 106-degree daily record high for the date set in 1980 -- Sunday. Wichita, Kansas, has recorded five days of 100-degree temperatures, and the city has reached at least 90 F every day so far in the month as of July 18.

To the south, the heat has been even more intense. In Dallas, Monday's high of 109 F was the highest temperature of the season thus far, but it fell one degree short of the daily record high of 110 F set in 1980. In Wichita Falls, a northern Texas city located about 140 miles to the northwest of Dallas, the high of 110 F Monday broke the daily record high, which was set in 2006.

Abilene, Texas, which is located about 180 miles west of Dallas, also reached 110 degrees Monday, making it the 51st day the city reached the triple digits this year. In contrast, 15 such days occur each year on average in Abilene, with only eight recorded last year.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the heat may peak Tuesday, and some residents of the central and southern Plains could potentially feel the hottest weather of the year. Excessive heat warnings were in effect Tuesday across six states, including much of Oklahoma, northern and central Texas into portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.

"As the massive dome of heat in place over the central United States become more established, temperatures will continue to inch upward. Much of the area also remains quite dry as well, which will only assist in raising the temperatures to such extreme and dangerous levels," AccuWeather Meteorologist Lauren Hyde said.

In Texas, aside from perhaps the immediate Gulf Coast where more moisture may keep the air temperature from surging as quickly, nearly all locations will reach or exceed 100 degrees.

Dallas may be one of the hottest locations Tuesday, as the high temperature is predicted to approach the 110-degree mark, surpassing the previous daily record high for the date of 108 degrees set in 2018.

In Austin, Texas, where high temperatures have hit 106 degrees three times this month, similar heat is expected once again Tuesday. Highs have already exceeded 100 F on 11 days as of July 18.

Even in Houston, where moisture from the Gulf of Mexico often keeps temperatures a bit lower than in drier inland areas, a high of 101 F was forecast Tuesday.

Adding to the dangerous heat gripping the Lone Star State, the blistering heat, tinder-dry conditions and breezy weather were contributing to a heightened fire danger Tuesday.

Toward the north in Oklahoma and Kansas, there will be no relief from the heat. Instead, temperatures may actually be higher in some areas. Highs in the lower 110s were predicted for the Oklahoma City area, with triple-digit temperatures expected across the entire state of Oklahoma.

Some of the day's most extreme heat will be found in western and southern Oklahoma, where temperatures could even approach the 115-degree mark. In Lawton, Oklahoma, which is located roughly 80 miles southwest of Oklahoma City, a high temperature of 113 F is forecast. Not only will this approach the daily record high, it may come perilously close to breaking the all-time record of 115 degrees, which was set in August of 1936. Temperatures this hot are roughly 15 degrees above average for the date.

Oklahoma City's high was predicted by AccuWeather meteorologists to hit 111 F Tuesday and was expected to break the long-standing record high of 109 degrees for the date, which was set all the way back in 1936. Since November of 1890, when record-keeping began in the city, the high temperature has only climbed to 110 degrees or above 11 times, according to the National Weather Service.

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Although a few ticks down from earlier in the week, temperatures will remain at dangerous levels and substantially above average through late this week. Triple-digit heat will grip much of Kansas, and nearly all of Oklahoma and Texas will exceed the century mark. While temperatures will be trimmed back from the 110s anticipated Tuesday, record-challenging heat will persist into the weekend as highs reach above 100 F for cities such as Austin, Dallas, and Tulsa, Oklahoma.

"The heat dome will keep the storm track well to the north of the central and southern Plains," Hyde explained. Not only will this keep the heat locked into the south-central U.S., but it will also keep other parts of the country like the North Central and Northeastern states stormy.

By late week in the weekend, triple-digit temperatures will mostly be confined to the typical hottest locations, such as across Texas and the Desert Southwest. However, highs in the middle to upper 90s will occur in areas farther north. That level of heat is still above normal in many spots and can still be very dangerous.

Throughout the week, some of the hottest conditions are likely to occur in urban areas. Unlike in the suburbs and in rural areas, the cities are generally covered with paved surfaces that trap heat more easily, raising temperatures by a few degrees or more overall. This process is known as the urban heat island effect.

This year's abnormally dry weather will help worsen the heat wave. Roughly two-thirds of Texas and Oklahoma are in some stage of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Because of this, incoming solar energy can directly heat the ground as opposed to evaporating moisture, which can add several degrees to the overall high temperature.

"The persistent drought across much of the Plains is a major factor in the severity of this heat wave, and will continue to promote above-average temperatures through much of the rest of the summer," Hyde said. The bone-dry conditions along with extreme heat is also likely to cause elevated fire concerns.

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